After their 117-110 loss on Monday, the Golden State Warriors are on the brink of elimination.
And just a few short weeks after their extended honeymoon with new forward Jimmy Butler, Warriors fans have be wondering where “Playoff Jimmy” is.
In Game 3 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Butler had 33 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in a five-point loss, but he followed that up with 14 points on just nine shot attempts in Game 4.
And after finishing that one as a game-worst minus-30, he’s now minus-20 for this series and minus-36 for the entire postseason.
The loss of Stephen Curry to a hamstring strain is obviously the biggest reason for Golden State being down 3-1 to Minnesota, but Butler’s inability to find a higher gear, particularly as a scorer, is part of it, too.
Surviving the non-Curry minutes had to be among the motivations for acquiring Butler in the first place. And during his abbreviated regular-season run with the Warriors, he more than came through on that front.
In nearly 1,000 possessions prior to the playoffs, Golden State had a plus-12.8 net rating when Butler was on the floor without Curry. In those same non-Curry minutes, Butler averaged 24.9 points and 7.6 assists per 75 possessions, with a 63.7 true shooting percentage.
His playmaking made offense significantly easier for teammates who previously struggled to score without Curry on the floor to command defensive attention. He was generating an absurd 11.9 free-throw attempts per 75 possessions for himself, giving the offense high-efficiency scoring. His slashing pulled opponents to the paint, freeing up extra space for shooters outside.
And his defense, especially when paired with Draymond Green’s, gave Golden State a stifling resistance that held opponents to 97.2 points per 100 possessions.
But much of that has dried up this postseason, right when the Warriors needed Butler’s production most.
Outside of Game 3, Butler has often looked passive as a scorer against the Timberwolves. Perimeter defenders like Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards and a generally strong defensive shell backed by Rudy Gobert have all contributed to Butler settling for jumpers on some forays inside the arc.
And in a more general sense, he simply hasn’t been able to impose his will on these games in the way we’ve seen him do that in the past.
During the Miami Heat’s Finals run in 2023, he averaged 26.9 points and 5.9 assists with a 6.6 box plus/minus. The year before, he put up 27.4 points, 4.6 assists and 2.1 steals with a 11.8 box plus/minus. And in the 2020 Finals, he put up 26.2 points, 9.8 assists, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 steals.
That player took three different outmatched Heat teams far further in the playoffs than anyone expected, and he simply hasn’t shown up in the wake of the Curry injury.
After his 14-point outing on Monday, Butler is averaging 19.4 this postseason. He’s shooting 45.4 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from deep. Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Gary Payton II are the only Warriors with lower playoff-long raw plus-minuses.
Butler’s own injury, a pelvic contusion he suffered in Game 2 against the Houston Rockets, could be partially to blame, but he’s played over 40 minutes in two of the four games against Minnesota. Golden State’s free-flowing, egalitarian offense could be a factor, but Butler was willing and able color outside similar lines with Miami.
Maybe he’s simply aged out of the “Playoff Jimmy” era. Butler turns 36 in September. Every NBA player, even the biggest stars, start to fade at some point. We might be there with Butler.
And even as shorthanded as the Heat sometimes seemed during his years there, a supporting cast with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo was probably more dynamic than one led by Draymond, Buddy Hield and Brandin Podziemski.
The slightly older Butler carrying a slightly worse team may just be too big of an ask.
But Golden State does indeed have to ask this of him. To survive an elimination Game 5 in Minnesota, Butler is going to have to turn back the clock.
He has to be aggressive—as a scorer—from the outset. He has to stay aggressive through the final buzzer. That means relentless driving, drawing trips to the line and generating force-of-will assists, rather than moving the ball and screening away from it.
In other words, just to survive long enough to get Curry back in Game 6 (when he reportedly might return), Golden State has to have Playoff Jimmy.
