Thunderbolts* Eyes $70M-$75M, Sinners $30M+ 3rd Weekend

SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…Marvel Studios and Disney’s Thunderbolts* has a shot at coming in a bit better for the weekend at $73M-$77M. As we told you, Friday was close to $32M, with Disney calling it at $31.5M.

While we’d expect more and want more from Marvel during the first weekend of summer, when you include Thunderbolts* in with all the other holdovers in the marketplace, there’s nothing to complain about with all titles doing an estimated $145M this weekend. This is where originals now live with Marvel post Covid. However, what Thunderbolts* has going for itself are its exits. Audiences gave it a solid A- as compared to the B- they smacked Captain America: Brave New World with, and the Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, David Harbour, Wyatt Russell, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Hannah John-Kamen and Geraldine Viswanathan-led movie has a great 71% definite recommend on PostTrak. All of that bodes well for this pic holding in the summer to come. You’ll remember, there was some cynicism with the bowing of Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 with a $118.4M opening, and that yielded a -19% ease in its second weekend and a 3x domestic multiple with a near $359M cume.

More upbeat results from Thunderbolts*: 75% told PostTrak they want to see a sequel, while 40% said they went to watch because of the cast and 53% mentioned the big reason why they bought a ticket was because it’s a Marvel movie. Diversity demos are 42% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 17% Black and 10% Asian. Men over 25 came in at 45%, women over 25 at 25%, men under 25 at 20% and women under 25 at 10%. This is a very similar turnout in terms of demo ages as Captain America: Brave New World; men under 25 were a little lower at 18%. Also diversity demos on that movie were 36% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 23% Black and 10% Asian.

IMAX and PLF are repping 39% of the weekend with 3D generating separately 11% (Disney has to get moviegoers back in a 3D mindset so they’re primed for Avatar: Fire & Ash later this year). Best plays are East, Mountain and West. The AMC Dine-In Disney Springs (Fla.) leads single-location gross at $106K.

Thunderbolts*‘ social media universe stands at 570M according to analytics corp RelishMix, which is not far from Captain America: Brave New World‘s near 600M, but lower than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3‘s 709.7M followers across TikTok, YouTube, X, Instagram and Facebook. Pugh is not only the key cast driver in the run-up, but her well-boosted videos have driven over 23M views. Also on board are Harbour at 9.4M fans and Julia Louis-Dreyfus at 1.8M.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros’ Sinners is shaping up for a massive $33M third weekend, -28%. That is, of course, the best third weekend for a horror movie ahead of It‘s $29.7M third weekend. The 70MM Imax screenings which are coming back on May 15 are selling out, sources say. More depth to the box office has Warners’ A Minecraft Movie at $13M for the weekend in third.

Amazon MGM Studios’ The Accountant 2 is now looking at a second weekend of $9.8M, -60% and a running 10-day of $41.4M.

Also opening this weekend is Roadside Attractions’ pick-up of Cannes title The Surfer starring Nicolas Cage, and it’s shaping up for a 3-day around $750K after a $325K Friday at 1,085 theaters. Audiences at 48% on Rotten Tomatoes aren’t catching the wave like critics are with an 86% certified fresh critical score.

The Alec Baldwin Rust western opened on 115 theaters to a very low estimated $25K or $217 per screen. That’s not good — but here’s what’s going on. This is a theatrical day-and-date movie, so the marketing spend, which is minimal here, is weighted to promoting the movie on digital. Furthermore, whenever a theatrical distributor does a day-and-date PVOD release, contractually with the cable companies and digital OTT services, they have to open the movie in a specified amount of theaters. Falling Forward Films, the distributor of Rust, is a gun-for-hire by the producers. Funds from the pic go back to the family of late DP Halyna Hutchins, who was shot on the set. The better share of the film’s revenues lie in PVOD, not theatrical. With PVOD, 80% of the revenue generally goes back to the distributor vs. the 50/50 exhibitor-distributor rental from the domestic box office.

The Sailesh Kolanu crime thriller follows Arjun Sarkaar, a top Homicide Intervention Team officer from Visakhapatnam, who is sent to Jammu and Kashmir to investigate a series of brutal murders. As he pursues a group of elusive killers, the case tests his skills and mental strength. Best markets are Austin, Dallas, Seattle, Toronto, Atlanta, San Francisco, New York City and Baltimore.

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Marvel Studios and Disney’s Thunderbolts* is looking at $32M today, including last night’s $11.5M previews, for what’s shaping up to be a $70M-$75M opening at 4,330 theaters, which has more or less been par for the course for an MCU original title post Covid. The movie has great reviews and immediate thumbs-up from fans. Clearly by tomorrow night, we’ll know if it catches on and enters the Guardians of the Galaxy threshold ($94.3M), but as of this minute, no one is seeing it at that altitude.

The opening of Thunderbolts* alone will exceed the total amount that all films made a year ago during the first frame of May ($73.9M, per Box Office Mojo). That’s because the strikes pushed the release of Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine to late July; Universal’s The Fall Guy didn’t excite anyone with a $27.7M start. The top five movies alone have the potential to do $137M in business, making this a solid weekend.

Staying strong is Warner Bros’ Sinners with $9M today and a 3-day between $30M-$35M at 3,347 — a terrific hold at -23% to -34% in Weekend 3. By comparison, Jordan Peele’s Get Out posted a third weekend of $20.7M in 2017, -27%. Cume by Sunday will be $176.6M-$181.6M.

Warners had bragging rights for third place as well with Legendary co-production A Minecraft Movie at 3,571 sites doing $3M today — $13M, -43% in its fifth weekend — for a running total of $397.5M.

Fourth goes to Amazon MGM Studios’ The Accountant 2 with a Friday of $3M, second weekend of $11.2M, -51%, and a running total of $41.6M, which is 12% behind the 2016 original at the same point in time.

Sony Screen Gems’ Until Dawn at 3,055 locations is in fifth with $1M in its second Friday and a $3M second weekend, -59% for an estimated running total by Sunday of $13.8M.

UPDATE AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Disney’s official figure Thunderbolts* last night is $11.5M. More good news for Thunderbolts* this weekend: Out of the gate it has 4 1/2 stars on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak and a great 74% definite recommend. Also, 5 stars with kids under 12 and parents.

The figure isn’t that far from the $12M chalked up by February’s Captain America: Brave New World; that preview repped 29% of the Anthony Mackie pic’s first Friday, which turned into an $88.8M 3-day. Last night’s money for the Pugh, Harbour and Stan-led movie is also under that of Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 which posted $17.5M in previews for a $48.1M Friday and $118.4M 3-day.

Warner Bros’ Sinners ends its second week with $69M at 3,347 theaters, -11%, and a running cume of $146.6M. Yesterday was $4.8M, -20% from Wednesday. Even with Sinners ceding its premium screens this weekend, it’s expected to have a robust hold. It was announced that the Ryan Coogler-directed title will return to nine select IMAX 70MM theaters from May 15-21.

Disney/20th Century Studios’ Star Wars: The Revenge of the Sith didn’t play on Thursday; however, the re-release’s gross through Wednesday is $34.1M. The lifetime cume of the George Lucas Episode III is $414.3M.

Amazon MGM Studios’ The Accountant 2 is third for the week with $31.6M at 3,610 screens, after a $1.2M Thursday, -18% from Wednesday. The Ben Affleck Artists Equity sequel is slightly behind the original movie’s first week tally of $33.8M.

Warner Bros’ A Minecraft Movie ends its fourth week with $27.2M at 3,841 sites, -49%, and a running cume of $384.5M. Thursday’s take was $950K, -7% from Wednesday.

Sony Screen Gems’ Until Dawn has a first week of $10.5M after a $527K Thursday, -5% from Wednesday.

EXCLUSIVE: Disney and Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* is off to a very good start with around $11M tonight, we hear from non-Disney sources. Always know that forecast can swing higher or lower by the time late night monies come in Friday AM. Hopefully tonight’s previews are an indicator to better days at the summer B.O. and that the current momentum from A Minecraft Movie and Sinners keeps up.

Marvel had to postpone last year’s summer kickoff pic, Deadpool & Wolverine, to late July due to the impact of the strikes.

Not only does the Pugh and Stan vehicle have a solid start, but it’s also winning fans over tonight with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes audience score after its 88% certified fresh rating with critics. That’s better than the MCU’s Captain America: Brave New World from February (48% critics, 78% audience) which saw an $88.8M 3-day, $100M 4-day over the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend, which translated to $200.2M stateside and $414.8M global take.

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Tonight’s previews are roughly a million under Captain America: Brave New World’s $12M, but they’re also ahead of 2021’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings ($8.8M) and Eternals ($9.5M). The weekend projection yesterday for the ragtag superhero movie — which is sort of a sequel to Disney+ series The Falcon and Winter Soldier and Hawkeye, as well as the movie Black Widow — was $70M-$75M stateside at 4,300 sites and $175M on the high end of its global start. Thunderbolts* (not to be confused with Thundercats) has all the premium ticket upcharges in IMAX, Dolby, ScreenX, 4DX, etc.

We told you in the past week that previews/presales for Thunderbolts* are behind Captain America: Brave New World. However, presales for the Jake Schreier-helmed MCU title continue to be ahead of 2021’s Shang Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings ($75.3M) and Eternals ($71.2M opening).

We’ll have more intel on Warner Bros’ Sinners‘ third weekend tomorrow; however, some rivals are estimating that the Ryan Coogler-directed, Michael B. Jordan-starring period vampire movie is headed to a 3-day of $35M, which would be a remarkable dip of -23%. Forecasts had Sinners easing -25% to -30% in its third weekend for $32M-$34.2M yesterday.

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