The Athletics (17-15) will be taking on the Miami Marlins (12-18) this weekend in the final leg of the road trip, and the last time these two clubs met in Miami, the A’s were swept by the home team in what ended up being a 112-loss season.
Last year at the Oakland Coliseum, the A’s took two-of-three from the Marlins, and this year’s group appears to be the best of the bunch as the team is beginning to round into shape and potentially even push for a postseason berth in 2025. If the season ended today, the A’s would be tied for the final wild-card spot in the American League, but there is still a long ways to go.
The Marlins have lost five straight after dropping two-of-three to the Seattle Mariners and getting swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road. They’ll return home for this series where they are 8-8 on the year.
Friday’s matchup could be extremely interesting with the A’s sending out Gunnar Hoglund for his MLB debut, the third high-profile debut for the club this season, going against Valente Bellozo in his third start of the season. Both righties are 25 years old, though Bellozo has some experience in the bigs, holding a 3-5 record with a 3.52 ERA (5.45 FIP) in 15 career starts dating back to last season.
Bellozo is a fly ball pitcher, with just 20.8% of his outs coming on the ground this season in his two outings, while he held a 30% ground ball rate last year. He’s yet to give up a home run this season.
With Hoglund joining the A’s rotation, Osvaldo Bido will slide back a day and is now the scheduled starter for Satuday’s game. He’ll be opposed by one of the better pitchers in the National League, Max Meyer. The 26-year-old righty has a 3.18 ERA (2.90 FIP) and is an extreme ground ball pitcher, with 56.1% of his outs coming on the ground.
Meyer’s strikeout rate has also jumped up this season, sitting at 33.1%, while his walk rate has held steady at 7.7%–the same walk rate he’s had in his first two seasons in the big leagues. His slider, which he throws 40% of the time, has a batting average against of just .123 with an expected batting average (xBA) of .165. It’s flithy and effective.
On Sunday, it will be JP Sears going for the A’s, and in the early going he has been the team’s best starter. Through six starts he holds a 2.94 ERA (3.55 FIP) and has upped his strikeout rate to 21.7% while dropping his walk rate to 4.3%. He’s been extremely effective for the Athletics this season.
He’ll be opposed by Edward Cabrera (0-1, 7.23 ERA), who has been roughly league average the past two seasons. While he averages 97 miles per hour on his sinker and four-seam, those are also two of his more hittable pitches. His most-used offering is his changeup (29.6%), which is a bit more effective with a .250 batting average and a .197 xBA.
Over the past week, the Marlins have been held largely in check offensively, holding an 80 wRC+ while scoring 29 runs in six games. While that’s 4.83 runs per game, which is great, they’re 1-5 in that span after losing games in which they scored six twice and seven once. The lone win was an 8-4 victory in Seattle, but the Mariners shut them out the following day, 14-0.
The Marlins also have the worst team ERA over that span at 10.19, giving up 59 runs across those six games. Miami’s starters hold a 13.09 ERA, while the relievers are at a 7.94 ERA, which ranks No. 29 in baseball.
The A’s lost a blowout of their own, 15-2 on Tuesday to the Texas Rangers, but they proceeded to allow just one run total to Texas the next two games. While the A’s offense has been exactly league average over the past six games, they also rank No. 6 in baseball with a 111 wRC+ over the course of the season. Miami ranks No. 22 with a 94.
Last year on May 4, the A’s were able to drop 20 on Trevor Rogers the Marlins at home. Brent Rooker (3-for-4, two home runs, five RBI), Shea Langeliers (3-for-5, HR, 3 RBI), and JJ Bleday (3-for-5, home run, 4 RBI) all had huge games against Miami.
Last season, the Marlins traded Rogers to the Baltimore Orioles for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. This season, Stowers has been a solid bat in the Miami order, batting .323 with a .396 OBP and four homers, giving him a wRC+ of 148 through 28 games played. He’s the most prominent bat for the A’s to be wary of.
The other big bat in the lineup right now is Agustín Ramīrez, who was acquired from the New York Yankees in the Jazz Chisholm Jr. deal last year. After getting called up on April 21, Ramírez has been in the Marlins lineup in all but one game either at catcher of DH.
The 23-year-old is batting .290 with a .333 OBP and three homers in eight games in his first taste of the big leagues, and holds a 178 wRC+ in the small sample.
It’s impossible to predict single games or single series over the course of a baseball season, but on paper, the A’s are the better team and should come out ahead this weekend. That said, they did just take three-of-four from their AL West rivals in the Rangers, and pulled out a win against Tyler Mahle, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2025.
The previous series could serve as a momentum boost, or the team could take their foot off the gas after a big series and fall into a bit of a trap. While nobody is going to look back and point to an A’s/Marlins series in May as pivotal, it could provide us a glimpse into what this A’s team is about.
They’ve won some tough games against the Rangers the past two weeks. Now we get to see how they respond in a series they should win.
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