The Toronto Maple Leafs’ top two lines controlled Game 1 of their first-round series with the Ottawa Senators.
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares all had two points each in the 6-2 win.
The same level of dominance will carry over into Tuesday’s Game 2, especially with the second line led by Nylander and Tavares.
Ottawa doesn’t have the overall firepower to keep up with the Nylander-Tavares line, or the top unit, led by Matthews and Marner. That sets up for the Leafs to take a 2-0 lead on home ice.
William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-135)
William Nylander had 53 more shots on goal at home compared to the road in the regular season.
Nylander only had two attempts on target in Game 1, but that is more of an outlier to his overall playoff trend.
The Swedish winger is 19-4 to the over 2.5 SOG in his last 23 playoff games dating back to the start of the 2022 postseason.
Nylander is more than capable of producing those attempts at even strength, but he will also get a boost from shots on the power play. Toronto had six power-play opportunities in Game 1 against an Ottawa team that had the fourth-most penalty minutes in the regular season among playoff teams.
John Tavares Over 0.5 Points (-142)
John Tavares’ point prop is a bit cheaper than Nylander at -175, so that’s the target, even though both players will likely get on the score sheet.
Tavares had six shots on goal in Game 1, but that’s on the high end compared to his recent playoff history.
If Nylander is ripping shots toward the Senators net, Tavares will likely be part of the setup to get him the puck.
Tavares is also on Toronto’s top power play unit with Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Matthew Knies.
With Ottawa’s propensity to commit penalties still in play, Tavares will get a few chances to record a point on the man advantage, as well as with Nylander at even strength.
Toronto Money Line (-166)
Toronto’s top six forwards were too good for the Senators to handle in Game 1.
Those players combined to contribute on five of the six goals on Sunday night. Three of those tallies came on the power play.
Ottawa just doesn’t have the talent to keep up with the Leafs if their top six is playing at that high of a level.
The Senators as a whole, not just Brady Tkackuk on his own, have to prove they can rise to Toronto’s level, and if not, the Senators will be one of the first teams eliminated from the postseason.
