Kyle Freeland has pitched better than his numbers indicate and he’s getting a break from Coors Field to tangle with a punchless Giants offense. He’ll particularly keep Matt Chapman’s bat silent.
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This feels like a bug meets windshield situation as the 19-12 San Francisco Giants host the 5-25 Colorado Rockies for the opener of a four-game set.
But do the crumbling Rockies have a shot to steal a win in Game 1? Maybe not, but my Rockies vs. Giants predictions explain why Kyle Freeland can make things tough on a few San Francisco hitters.
I bring you my MLB picks for this National League West showdown with the first pitch slated for 9:45 pm ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco, on Thursday, May 1.
Rockies vs Giants prediction
My Rockies vs Giants best bet: Matt Chapman Under 0.5 Hits (+190 at bet365)
It’s a tough existence for Colorado Rockies fans these days.
The ownership clearly doesn’t care about the product on the field. This roster is mostly devoid of MLB talent and it shows. The Rockies have just five wins through their first 30 games, which includes two eight-game losing streaks.
But hey, they’re coming off a 2-1 win against the Atlanta Braves and will try to win two games in a row for the first time this season when they hand the ball to embattled veteran Kyle Freeland.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants continue to battle with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres at the top of what looks like will be the most fun division in baseball this season.
The Giants just dropped two in a row to the Padres and counter Freeland with the ageless Justin Verlander, who has been mostly “meh” this season with a 3.90 expected ERA.
But I want to focus on Freeland.
It feels like he’s been going through the motions for a while now, and his 5.93 ERA suggests that hasn’t changed. But the 31-year-old left-hander has been better than that ERA suggests with an xERA sitting at 3.51. And he’s had success against some of the batters in this Giants lineup, including Matt Chapman.
The Giants third baseman hasn’t had a great start to the season, hitting below the Mendoza line at .198. His expected batting average is in the Bottom 10% among MLB batters while his expected slugging and strikeout rates are in the Bottom 30%.
Oh, and he’s in one hell of a slump right now.
Chapman has recorded just three hits and 13 strikeouts over his last 10 games. That’s good for a .088 batting average and a .450 OPS. And as noted, he doesn’t have great numbers against Freeland, going 1-for-8 with two strikeouts.
Freeland can navigate a Giants lineup that ranks 25th in batting average and 23rd in wRC long enough so Chapman doesn’t get many at bats against a, um, shaky Rockies bullpen.
Take Chapman to put up a donut in the hit column tonight at intriguing plus money. Something he’s done in seven of his last 10 games, including the last three in a row.
Rockies vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Matt Chapman Under 0.5 hits
Willy Adames Under 0.5 hits
Justin Verlander Over 17.5 outs recorded
Let’s add a hitless night for Giants shortstop Willy Adames. He’s another San Francisco player having a tough time at the plate, hitting .208 with a .592 OPS. He ranks in the 16th percentile in xBA, and he’s had even more problems with Freeland than Chapman has.
Adames is hitless with four strikeouts in 13 career plate appearances against the lefty. Under 0.5 hits for Adames as well.
Let’s round this same-game parlay out with Verlander to go Over 17.5 outs. Verlander has been solid if unspectacular with the Giants. But he’s thrown back-to-back quality starts and now faces a Colorado lineup that ranks dead last in a lot of offensive categories, including batting average, OPS, and wRC+.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockies vs Giants odds
Rockies vs Giants live odds
Rockies vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Colorado +185 | San Francisco -225
- Run line: Colorado +1.5 (-115) | San Francisco -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Rockies vs Giants trend
The Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games for +10.05 Units and a 30% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Giants.
How to watch Rockies vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 5-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | COLR, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Rockies starting pitcher | Kyle Freeland (0-4, 5.93 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Justin Verlander (0-2, 4.99 ERA) |
Rockies vs Giants latest injuries
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