Record-breaking heat expected. Florida forecast, tropics

Old Farmer’s Almanac predicting possible record-breaking heat this summer.
Most of the U.S., including Florida, is expected to be hot and dry this summer.
Florida was joined by Arizona, California, Maine and New Hampshire in suffering from the warmest (meteorological) summer on record.

If there are two words Florida residents don’t want to see together it’s “weather” and “doozy.”

“Summer is always hot, but this year is shaping up to be a doozy!” according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac in its summer 2025 prediction.

NOAA and AccuWeather forecasters agreed.

June through August could “feature sweltering heat, severe weather, intense wildfires and the start of a dynamic hurricane season,” AccuWeather said in its summer forecast.

Predictions indicate a gradual buildup to record-breaking heat across the U.S., with above-normal temperatures across most regions, the Old Farmer’s Almanac said

“Given recent trends, we wouldn’t be surprised to see record-breaking heat.“

There were a couple of “bright” spots in the forecast. South Florida, currently suffering severe drought, could see some higher-than-normal precipitation this summer and temps aren’t expected to be hotter than normal, the Old Farmer’s Almanac said.

How hot will it be in Florida this summer?

“It’s going to be a scorcher of a summer,” according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

Most of the U.S., including Florida, is expected to be hot and dry this summer. The forecast is for meteorological summer, which is June, July and August.

South Florida, though, could see cooler, rainy conditions.

“Predictions indicate a gradual buildup to record-breaking heat. June temperatures will be near normal in most regions (though not all), meaning the summer heat won’t surge too quickly.

“However, July and August will bring above-normal temperatures across most regions, with only a few exceptions.”

Summer 2025 vs summer 2024

Summer 2024 was the fourth hottest summer on record in the U.S., according to NOAA.

Florida was joined by Arizona, California, Maine and New Hampshire in suffering from the warmest (meteorological) summer on record.

Florida also saw its second-warmest August on record in 2024.

NOAA summer forecast predicts above-normal temps for Florida

NOAA’s forecast for summer 2025 predicts temperatures across the Sunshine State will likely be above-average for all of Florida.

“Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 40 percent for much of the Gulf Coast region and Southeast and exceed 50 percent over southern Florida,” where water temperatures are warmer than normal, NOAA said.

There may be a slight delay, though, with cooler temps expected in early May based on Climate Prediction Center outlooks.

AccuWeather predicting Florida temps could be 1-2 degrees above average

Temperatures as a whole from June through August will be above the historical average, although the worst heat is expected across the Plains and northern Rockies, according to AccuWeather.

In Florida, temperatures are expected to be 1 to 2 degrees above historical averages. Orlando could see 18 to 24 days of temps hitting 90 degrees.

Don’t expect much improvement during the overnight hours.

“A trend in recent years has been warmer nights during the summer, especially in and around major cities. This could be the case again in 2025,” AccuWeather said.

What about rain? Will Florida have a rainy summer?

Precipitation is expected to be higher than normal in South Florida, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

Elsewhere, “summer precipitation isn’t expected to show extreme deviations.”

NOAA summer rain forecast for Florida

Above-normal precipitation for the summer is expected for the central and eastern Gulf Coast, but a “slight tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for much of Florida,” in May.

Warm Gulf could bring ‘intense weather events’

“The Gulf is warm and will lead to intense severe weather events into summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

Hurricane season could ‘start quickly’

“A dynamic hurricane season is predicted for the Atlantic in 2025, and it could start quickly. The season officially starts June 1.

“The same warm water that will promote thunderstorms across the East could also fuel tropical storms or even hurricanes in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic, especially in July and August,” AccuWeather said.

➤ ‘Volatile hurricanes’ in AccuWeather 2025 hurricane season predictions. What Florida can expect

“There is also the chance that a storm will develop before the official start to the season, which is June 1.

“Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac said to watch for tropical storms:

Mid-July: From Florida through southern Virginia and from the central Gulf Coast into Texas
Late August: In Florida and Texas

And to look out for hurricanes:

Early August: Highest chances in Texas
Late August: Highest chances in Louisiana