The San Diego Padres (23-12) and the New York Yankees (20-16) wrap up a 3-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network/Prime Video). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
After losing the Monday opener 4-3 as -158 favorites, the Yankees bounced back with a 12-3 victory as -129 favorites Tuesday with the Over (8) cashing. C Austin Wells had 5 RBIs in New York’s 10-run seventh inning. He hit a game-tying single in his first at-bat in the inning and launched his first career grand slam later in the frame.
Padres RF Fernando Tatís Jr. gave San Diego a 3-2 lead with an RBI double in the seventh inning Tuesday, but the rally stalled as Yankees RP Fernando Cruz struck out 3B Manny Machado on 3 pitches to leave the bases loaded. The loss snapped a 6-game win streak for the Padres.
Padres at Yankees projected starters
RHP Dylan Cease vs. LHP Max Fried
Cease (1-2, 5.61 ERA) makes his eighth start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 33 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 9-4 victory at Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
- 2025 road stats: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (13 IP, 13 ER), 18 H, 7 BB, 13 K in 3 starts
- 2024 vs. Yankees: 1 home start (May 25), loss, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 4-1 defeat
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-2, 6.39 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 5 starts
Fried (6-0, 1.01 ERA) makes his eighth start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 44 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 3-0 home victory vs. Tampa Bay Rays Friday
- 2025 home stats: 3-0, 1.48 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 18 H, 8 BB, 20 K in 4 starts
- Last start vs. Padres: Loss, 2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 5-4 road setback in Game 2 of NLWC Oct. 2, 2024, with Atlanta Braves
- 2024 vs. Padres (regular season): 1 home start (May 17), loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 3-1 defeat with Braves
- Career vs. Padres (regular season): 3-1, 2.30 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 5 starts
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Padres at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Yankees -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-135) | Yankees -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -102 | U: -118)
Padres at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Padres 5
The Yankees (-185) are 7-0 in Fried’s starts this year and will likely win again Wednesday, but the price on their ML is too high.
PASS on the ML.
The Padres went 2-0 straight up against Fried last season, tagging the 2-time All-Star for 8 runs over 6 1/3 innings. While a third consecutive outright win may be a stretch, San Diego should at least keep this game close. It also helps that the Padres are 11-7 (61.1%) on the run line this season as underdogs.
BET PADRES +1.5 (-135).
Cease owns a 6.39 ERA in 5 career starts against the Yankees, while Fried was roughed up for 5 earned runs in just 2 innings in his most recent outing against the Padres. Though Fried enters on a hot streak — having not allowed an earned run in 3 straight starts — his recent struggles against San Diego could resurface and help push this game over 8 runs.
BET OVER 8 (-102).
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