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PM Modi’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is a testament to his political acumen, showcasing his ability to wage modern warfare through strategic means
By leveraging India’s upstream position, PM Modi has placed Pakistan in a miserable position. (PTI)
On April 23, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi executed a historic and audacious decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a 65-year-old pact governing the sharing of six Himalayan rivers between India and Pakistan. This bold move, prompted by a devastating terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which claimed 26 lives and was linked to Pakistan-based terrorists, underscores Modi’s unparalleled political acumen in navigating the complexities of modern warfare.
In an era where conflicts are multi-layered, blending diplomacy, economics, and resource control, Modi’s strategic manoeuvre has placed Pakistan in a precarious position even before any military strike takes place. By suspending the IWT, described by Pakistan as an “act of war,” Modi has unleashed a cascade of challenges for Pakistan’s economy, agriculture, and societal stability. Early signs of disruption are already evident, signalling the profound impact of this masterstroke on a nation critically dependent on the Indus river system.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered in 1960 through World Bank mediation, has long been a pillar of transboundary water cooperation, allocating the Indus River system’s six rivers—Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—between India and Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), while Pakistan relies on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), which supply 80 per cent of the basin’s water flow. For Pakistan, an agrarian nation, this water is the lifeblood of its economy, irrigating 80 per cent of its farmland, sustaining 90 per cent of its food production, and powering a third of its hydropower. The treaty’s endurance through three wars and numerous crises highlighted its resilience—until Modi’s calculated decision to place it in “abeyance,” a move that showcases his ability to wield India’s upstream advantage as a geopolitical weapon.
Citing Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism as a violation of the treaty’s good-faith principles, India’s Ministry of Jal Shakti announced the suspension, empowering India to halt hydrological data sharing, withhold flood warnings, and pursue water infrastructure projects without consulting Pakistan. While immediate large-scale water diversion is limited, Modi’s foresight in leveraging this decision has already begun to destabilize Pakistan, demonstrating his mastery in orchestrating multi-dimensional pressure. The ripple effects are threatening Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, economic stability, and social cohesion, with early indicators pointing to an unfolding crisis.
Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which contributes 21 per cent to its GDP and employs 45 per cent of its workforce, is particularly vulnerable. The western rivers irrigate the fertile plains of Punjab and Sindh, producing 85 per cent of the nation’s food. The abrupt cessation of data sharing on river flows and flood warnings has water authorities in Pakistan in disarray. This disruption complicates irrigation planning, threatening planting and harvesting cycles. Already, farmers in Punjab and Sindh are scaling back planting, a tangible early sign of distress that could precipitate widespread food insecurity if India advances plans for new canals or dams.
The economic fallout extends beyond agriculture, further illustrating Modi’s ability to exploit Pakistan’s vulnerabilities. The Indus system powers major dams like Tarbela and Mangla, which generate a third of Pakistan’s electricity. Reduced water flows could disrupt hydropower, worsening energy shortages and forcing reliance on costly fossil fuel imports, inflating electricity prices. Pakistan’s retaliatory measures, such as closing its airspace to Indian airlines and suspending trade, are compounding the economic strain.
In 2024, India-Pakistan trade hit a five-year high of $1.2 billion, with Pakistan exporting dry fruits, cement, and rock salt via the Attari land port. The closure of this route is hitting small traders and manufacturers, particularly in border regions. Economist Vaqar Ahmed notes that Pakistan underestimated the threat of India exiting the treaty, leaving it unprepared for the economic blowback. Modi’s strategic calculus, by contrast, has positioned India to deter investment in Pakistan’s agriculture and related sectors, further weakening its fragile economy, already burdened by inflation and debt.
Social and political instability is another arena where Modi’s decision is exerting pressure. The suspension has ignited anti-India sentiment, with protests erupting in cities like Karachi, where students and teachers from Karachi University have denounced India’s actions. Former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari warned that abandoning the treaty “locks future generations into a new context of conflict,” highlighting the escalating tensions. Urban centres like Karachi and Lahore, dependent on the Indus for domestic water, face the spectre of shortages that could deepen inequalities and spark unrest. Pakistan’s government, branding disruptions to water flows as an “act of war,” has signalled potential military escalation, a testament to the destabilising power of Modi’s strategic gambit.
Environmentally, the suspension exacerbates Pakistan’s challenges, including groundwater depletion and climate change-induced water stress. India’s plans to build new dams and canals, could alter river flows over time, potentially turning regions like Sindh into deserts, as feared by farmers like Vaqar Ahmed. While immediate large-scale diversions are constrained, projects like the Kishanganga and Pakal Dul dams, completed in 5–11 years, suggest significant changes could materialize within a decade. Such alterations could render vast areas uninhabitable, triggering ecological crises that amplify Pakistan’s woes.
Early signs of the suspension’s impact are unmistakable. Farmers are reducing planting out of fear of drought or unannounced flooding, while public protests reflect growing anxiety over water security. The closure of trade routes and suspension of bilateral trade are squeezing exporters, and the halt in hydrological data sharing is hampering Pakistan’s water management capabilities. Diplomatically, Pakistan’s National Security Committee has condemned India’s “unilateral” and “irresponsible” actions, but legal recourse through forums like the World Bank or the International Court of Justice faces hurdles due to the IWT’s lack of an enforcement mechanism. The involvement of China, which controls the upper Indus and has previously supported Pakistan by blocking tributaries, adds geopolitical complexity, yet Modi’s deft manoeuvring has kept India firmly in control of the narrative.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is a testament to his political acumen, showcasing his ability to wage modern warfare through strategic, multi-layered means. By leveraging India’s upstream position, Modi has placed Pakistan in a miserable position, sowing economic, agricultural, and social distress without firing a single shot. As farmers hesitate, protests swell, trade falters, and diplomatic ties fray, the early stages of a broader crisis are unfolding. Over time, as India develops new water infrastructure, the impacts on Pakistan could intensify, potentially transforming fertile lands into deserts and fuelling regional instability.
For Pakistan, this suspension is an existential threat. As the Indus, once a symbol of cooperation, becomes a flashpoint in the volatile India-Pakistan relationship, Modi’s strategic brilliance ensures that India holds the upper hand, testing Pakistan’s resilience and its future intent on terrorism.
The writer is an author and National Spokesperson, BJP. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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