MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, May 18.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
1:35 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The pitching matchup is a mismatch: Paul Skenes owns a 2.63 ERA, allowing just 0.7 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings, while Phillies starter Mick Abel is making his MLB debut after posting a 2.53 ERA at the AAA level this season. However, the Pirates rank last in the league in scoring with just 3.1 runs per game, which could neutralize the pitching edge.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline +103 (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -113)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Nationals starter Mike Soroka enters with a rough 6.43 ERA over a small two-start sample, and across all 28 appearances since the start of 2024, he’s 0-12 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.4 home runs, and 4.6 walks per nine innings. On the flip side, Orioles starter Zach Eflin has been one of the team’s few bright spots, going 3-1 in four starts with a 3.13 ERA, allowing just 0.8 home runs and 1.2 walks per nine.
Pick: Orioles Run Line -1.5 +120 (Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -1.5 -107)
2:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore appears to have turned a corner this season, posting a 3.11 ERA with a 2.30 FIP, allowing just 0.4 home runs and 1.4 walks per nine. Royals starter Michael Wacha counters with a 2.96 ERA and just two home runs allowed across nine starts.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
2:20 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starter Andrew Abbott has been sharp with a 2.10 ERA and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Guardians starter Luis Ortiz owns a 4.78 ERA with a 4.09 FIP and 10.4 strikeouts per nine. The bullpen edge goes to the Reds, whose 3.53 ERA ranks 10th, compared to Cleveland’s 4.19, which ranks 19th.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -115 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -148)
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starter Colin Rea boasts a 2.48 ERA, though his 3.22 FIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine suggest some possible regression. White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon has led his team to three wins in his past four starts, posting a 3.60 ERA and allowing just four runs over his last three outings.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +260 (Greg’s Handicap: White Sox +234)
4:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Michael King holds a 2.32 ERA with 10 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, though a 3.24 FIP suggests he might regress. Mariners starter Bryan Woo has a 2.84 ERA and 2.69 FIP, allowing just 0.7 home runs and 1.4 walks per nine. Seattle’s lineup is averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road, fourth-best in the league.
Pick: Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9)
7:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Yankees ace Max Fried has been dominant with a 1.11 ERA and just 0.5 home runs allowed per nine. Mets starter David Peterson has a solid 3.05 ERA and 0.8 home runs per nine, backed by a bullpen sporting a 2.92 ERA—third-best in the league.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.8
