MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 18.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Guardians starting pitcher Luis Ortiz has plenty of familiarity with the Pirates as he pitched for them last season, posting a 3.32 ERA with only 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings. Carmen Mlodzinski owns a 6.23 ERA, but only a 2.24 fielding independent with no home runs allowed in three starts this season. He is backed up by a lineup that is 24th in the league in scoring with less than 3.5 runs per game.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -115 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -125 and Total 8.3)
6:45 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has a lifetime 2.73 ERA with less than 0.7 home runs per nine innings lifetime against the Miami Marlins in 25 career starts. He faces a Marlins lineup that is averaging only 2.8 runs per game away from home. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara is coming off a 2024 season in which he didn’t play and has seen his command be uncharacteristically shaky, He is issuing 4.7 walks per nine innings with a 4.70 ERA through three starts this season, which is tracking to be his first season above 2.3 walks per nine innings since 2020.
Pick: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +110 (Greg’s Handicap Phillies -1.5 -117)
7:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Cade Povich has been a different pitcher at home than on the road, posting a career 3.81 ERA with just under 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 6.81 ERA and over 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home. He faces a Reds lineup averaging just over 3.4 runs per game away from home. Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott is making his second start of the season after allowing just one run in five innings to start his 2025 campaign. Both teams enter this series in the top 10 of the league in bullpen ERA.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bryan Woo has posted a 2.89 ERA since the 2024 season began, with a higher fielding independent at 3.36. He has seen his strikeouts per nine innings rate fall to 7.6. Bowden Francis has been about as dominant as it gets since the 2024 All-Star Break, posting a 2.20 ERA with just over 1.6 walks per nine innings. The Mariners burned much of their bullpen in Thursday’s 10-inning win against the Cincinnati Reds. The Blue Jays are tied for 11th in bullpen ERA while the Mariners rank 17th.
Picks: Blue Jays Moneyline +101 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Blue Jays -136 and Total 8.4)
7:15 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves
Since making the 2023 National League All-Star team, things have been downhill for Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder, posting a 6.64 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings in 12 starts since the 2024 season began. Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in the league since arriving in Minnesota in 2022, posting a 5.27 ERA but just a 3.96 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Twins Moneyline +122 (Greg’s Handicap Twins +111)
8:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Athletics enter this series leading the American League in runs per game away from home with over 5.2 runs per game. The Brewers are sixth in the league in run production with over 4.8 runs per game. Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has just a 2.31 ERA, but a 3.44 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed. Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn is making his eighth career MLB start, posting a lifetime 3.89 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed. Both teams entered Thursday in the bottom five of the league in bullpen ERA, with the Athletics 26th with a 4.85 ERA and the Brewers 28th with a 6.09 ERA.
Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +135 and Over 7.5 (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -1.5 +113 and Total 8.4)
8:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies consistently have the largest home and road offensive splits in the league playing at elevation. They have massive splits already this season, batting .188 with 1.9 runs per game away from home and .280 with over 4.8 runs per game at home. Highly touted Rockies prospect Chase Dollander has allowed four home runs across 10 2/3 innings in his first two starts, but only six total runs. Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has allowed seven runs in 11 innings across his two road starts this season while giving up only two runs in 12 innings at home.
Pick: Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.7)
