Two of the most disappointing teams of the early part of this MLB season will face off over three games this week at Target Field. The Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles both came into 2025 with high expectations, which has made their slow starts extra frustrating for everyone involved.
The Twins, who were looking to bounce back from last season’s late collapse, had a preseason Vegas win total of 84.5. But at 15-20, they’re on pace to win just 69 games. The Orioles’ struggles have been even more pronounced. They averaged 96 regular season wins over the last two years and came into this season with an 87.5 win total that was tied for second-highest in the American League. Instead, they’re 13-20, which is a 64-win pace. Only the Angels and Rockies have a worse run differential than Baltimore’s -55 mark.
Whether it’s a 2-1 or 3-0 win, one of these teams will leave this series having inched closer to .500 and feeling better about itself. The other will have slipped further in the standings, which will only lead to increased angst among its fan base.
The Twins have some reasons for a bit of confidence heading into this series. They managed to salvage a 3-4 road trip to Cleveland and Boston last week, winning a pair of clutch one-run games at Fenway Park over the weekend to snap a four-game skid that included two brutal walk-off losses at Progressive Field. They’re also getting a boost in their lineup by activating Royce Lewis and Willi Castro off of the injured list on Monday. Lewis is set to make his season debut on Tuesday night.
Minnesota’s biggest issue this season has been scoring runs. On paper, getting Lewis back should help in that area. The Twins have gotten strong offensive contributions lately from players like Byron Buxton, Ty France, and Ryan Jeffers, though they’re still waiting for Carlos Correa to really get going.
The glaring issue for Baltimore has been on the pitching side. They lost ace Corbin Burnes in free agency this past offseason, and they’ve been hit with a wave of injuries to starters Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Zach Eflin, among others. 41-year-old Charlie Morton, one of their new acquisitions, has been a disaster. Dean Kremer and Cade Povich have also struggled mightily. Kyle Gibson made his season debut last week and gave up home runs to four of the first five Yankees hitters he faced. Really, only Japanese newcomer Tomoyuki Sugano has pitched well.
As a team, the Orioles’ 5.43 ERA is the second-worst in baseball, ahead of only the Marlins. They’ve allowed an MLB-high 51 home runs, including seven to the Royals on Sunday and six to the Yankees in that Gibson start last Tuesday. They’ve also only struck out 234 batters, third-fewest in the league. Baltimore’s usually-potent offense hasn’t been great (20th in runs per game, 18th in OPS), but the pitching has been a nightmare and the catalyst of their ugly start.
The Twins need to take advantage of the Orioles’ pitching woes this week. Finding a way to win this series would be huge for Minnesota, especially with the 22-13 Giants coming to town for a three-game series this weekend.
Here are the projected pitching matchups for the Twins and the Orioles:
Tues, 6:40 p.m: RHP Pablo Lopez (2.25 ERA) vs. LHP Cade Povich (5.16)
Wed, 6:40 p.m: RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (4.03) vs. RHP Dean Kremer (5.73)
Thurs, 12:10 p.m: RHP Joe Ryan (2.93) vs. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (3.00)
