SUNRISE, Fla. — The Maple Leafs and their fanbase will have undoubtedly woken up Thursday morning feeling buoyant and optimistic after the Leafs’ 4-3 win in Game 2 against the Florida Panthers. It felt like the kind of game the Leafs of the past would have lost.
The buzzword around this team through the postseason has been “different.” As in, is this Leafs team actually different from the teams that failed in past postseasons? Game 2 was the most startling affirmation that they are capable of elevating their playoff game against great teams and are indeed playing different and decisive hockey.
But now that we’re talking differences, this series is about to take on a new look.
Will the south Florida sun and humidity be a welcome change for the Leafs after spending the past few weeks in soggy Ontario climates? Sure, but Sunrise has not been a welcoming environment for the team as of late. At Florida’s Amerant Bank Arena in the past two seasons, the Leafs have gone 0-4 and lost by a combined score of 16-5.
Game 3 against a Panthers team looking to get back in the series presents one of the Leafs’ biggest challenges of the season and could be one of the more impactful games of the modern Leafs era.
The likely lines
Knies — Matthews — Marner
Pacioretty — Tavares — Nylander
McMann — Domi — Holmberg
Lorentz — Laughton — Järnkrok
McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Carlo
Benoit — Ekman-Larsson
Woll
Murray
Anthony Stolarz will miss his second straight game with a suspected concussion. Joseph Woll will try to procure another win for the Leafs in his absence. The bottom six may be crucial to that effort. The Panthers have the matchup advantage in Game 3 and figure to try to pick on the Leafs’ third and fourth lines with any one of their top three lines — the one led by Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, the one fronted by Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk, or the one with Brad Marchand that’s hurt the Leafs most far. The Leafs just need the Scott Laughton and Max Domi lines to survive in those minutes. — Siegel
The big questions
Can the Leafs hold the Panthers’ stars in check?
Reinhart had 39 goals in the regular season. He has yet to record a point in this series and has been limited to only four shots. Matthew Tkachuk hasn’t scored. Neither has former 40-goal man Carter Verhaeghe. Barkov has recorded one goal (and point) all series and that came on the power play. The Leafs have frustrated Florida’s stars by making it difficult to penetrate the inside and get clean shots through to the net. Can they keep that up tonight? — Siegel
Can the Leafs keep beating Sergei Bobrovsky?
Through two games, the Leafs have already ripped nine goals past the likely future Hall of Famer on just 50 shots. That’s … far more than anticipated against a goaltender who propelled the Panthers to a Stanley Cup last year and did so with a respectable .906 save percentage through the 2024 playoffs. Yet against the Leafs he’s looked a touch slow in his movements and has struggled with traffic in front of him. If he can’t turn things around and be the better goalie against Woll, the Panthers’ chances of coming back in this series seriously decrease.
Bobrovsky has been a better goalie at home compared to on the road this season, with four shutouts at home in 31 games and a .907 save percentage. You would think, as Panthers head coach Paul Maurice does, that the veteran goalie will turn things around at home. He’ll have to. The Leafs own just over one-third of the high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five in this series, per Natural Stat Trick. But pucks keep finding their way past Bobrovsky. — Kloke
Will the special teams improve in Florida?
The Leafs’ power play was firing against the Ottawa Senators. They converted on 35.3 percent (third-best in the NHL in that time span) of their chances and tallied six goals on the man advantage through six games. That same power play is just 1-for-8 against the Panthers.
And the penalty kill in the first round? 80 percent while allowing just three goals through six games. Effective, to be sure.
But the special teams battle has gotten away from the Leafs through two games. The Leafs have allowed two goals on the penalty kill in just five chances. The officiating has been tough to predict this series (and that’s putting things politely), but it feels safe to suggest that the Panthers could continue to see some calls go their way at home. The Leafs will need more production from their first power play unit — a classic Auston Matthews power play goal would go a long way with the fanbase right now — and to lock things down when they’re down a man in Amerant Bank Arena. Otherwise, the Panthers could claw back into this series fairly quickly. — Kloke
How to watch
The puck drops in Florida at 7 p.m. (ET) on Sportsnet, CBC, TVAS, TNT, TruTV and Max.
(Photo of Joseph Woll and Auston Matthews: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
