Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Thursday’s game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers are for real. And the Angels? Limping through a five-game losing streak. Not exactly the best night for LA to roll out Kikuchi against the Tigers’ pocket ace in Casey Mize. But alas. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Angels and the Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Detroit Tigers are playing at a level that’s turning heads, and this matchup is another perfect chance for them to prove they’re for real. Despite a bumpy start to the year, their pitching staff has been lights-out, led by Casey Mize, who’s been the embodiment of consistency. With a sparkling 2.12 ERA, Mize has shown he can be trusted in high-pressure situations, especially against a floundering Angels lineup. Kikuchi, who hasn’t found his footing this year, gets the ball for Los Angeles, and his 4.31 ERA is a clear sign he’s yet to meet expectations. The Angels have lost five straight, and their offense is in a downward spiral, which means this game is ripe for a Tigers win.
But it’s not just about the arms. Spencer Torkelson is absolutely raking, sitting 11th in the majors with eight homers and 24 RBIs. His ability to turn any at-bat into a potential game-changer makes him a constant threat, especially against a pitcher like Kikuchi who’s prone to leaving balls up in the zone. And while Torkelson is the power bat, Zach McKinstry continues to shine, hitting .323 with an on-base percentage that would make any leadoff hitter proud. McKinstry is hitting over .400 in his last 10 games, keeping pressure on pitchers from the get-go and setting the table for the big hitters.
Meanwhile, the Angels’ struggles to generate consistent offense are obvious. Mike Trout’s power surge is the only thing keeping this offense from being even worse, but his nine homers have been the lone bright spot in an otherwise lackluster lineup—and he’s hurt! The Angels are hitting just .211 as a team—good for 29th in the league—and they rank dead last in on-base percentage. That’s not a recipe for success against a strong Tigers staff that’s limiting opposing batters to a .219 average.
Tigers vs. Angels pick, best bet
The Tigers should take advantage of this opportunity, and with the betting trends in their favor, they’re primed to cover the -1.5 spread. The Tigers have won 73% of games when favored this season, including 11-2 when favored by -130 or more. They’ve also covered the spread in nine of their last 10 night games against teams with a losing record, and have led after five innings in each of their last seven games. Other side of the same coin: the Angels have lost five straight games and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight as underdogs at home.
The Tigers have been solid on the road and have consistently covered the spread in these situations. The Angels—not so much. With a struggling lineup and Kikuchi on the mound, it’s tough to envision them keeping pace tonight. Detroit’s offense and Mize’s steady hand should be enough to bring home another win.
Best bet: Tigers -1.5 (+130) at Angels
Mize’s splitter is the stuff of nightmares—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
