The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 151st time on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
Journalism has been installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite to take home the $3.1 million first-place purse. But that might not be a good thing. Since 2000, just 29.1% of morning line odds favorites (7 of 24) have won the Run for the Roses.
In the past two decades alone, four horses have won the Derby with odds of 50-1 or higher, including 81-1 Rich Strike in 2022. Mystik Dan won last year’s Derby at 18-1 odds.
New Orleans is home to some of the top horse racing experts in the nation. Each year I corral a group of them to handicap the race. This year’s lineup is excellent, as always.
Without further ado, Tom Amoss, Michael Beychok, Kevin Kilroy, Patrick McGoey and Chad Schexnayder offer their analysis and selections for the 151th Kentucky Derby, which will run Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
Tom Amoss’ analysis and selections
Twenty horses in the starting gate, all trying to navigate the shortest trip home to win. Welcome to the Kentucky Derby!
The Derby is no different than trying to navigate rush-hour traffic on Airline Highway. If you get stuck behind slower cars, it doesn’t matter if you’re driving a Ferrari. No one gets to see what that Ferrari can do. Jockeys, like drivers, have to make the right split-second decisions, or they may get stuck in traffic. This year marks the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby and we have a Ferrari in the field. His name is Journalism.
1. Journalism (3-1): He’s not only my pick to win, I believe he has the ability to dominate the field. Coming into the race after winning the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism has looked brilliant over the Churchill Downs racetrack in the morning workouts. And he has something else, call it focus, athleticism, the “it” factor or as I like to call it “the look.” You see it in special athletes. This horse is special.
2. Sovereignty (5-1): He comes from Florida, where he was second in his last start, the Florida Derby from an extreme outside post position. It was a better race than it appears on paper. If Journalism encounters traffic trouble, Sovereignty has the chance to beat him. But I think that’s the only way he could beat him
3. Baeza (12-1): As of Thursday, he was still waiting to get into the field on also-eligible list, but I am confident that’s going to happen so I’m including him in my picks. Baeza was second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.
Longshot — Burnham Square (19-1): Meghan Trainor had a hit song called “All About the Bass.” In horse racing, it’s all about the pace. And the early pace in Kentucky Derby is always fast. That gives the opportunity for a horse that conserves his energy to pick up the pieces at the end of the race, and Burnham Square has a big chance to do that. . Having just won The Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland coming from well back, look for him running late to possibly complete the exacta.
(Tom Amoss is one of the leading thoroughbred trainers in North America. The New Orleans native is also a longtime racing analyst at Fox Sports.)
Michael Beychok’s analysis and selections
I’m holding a 60-1 Derby Futures bet ticket on Rodriguez to win the Derby, but I just don’t like the way the race sets up for him. There appears to be too many horses that want to go to the front — like Rodriguez — which will compromise his chances to win, so I’ll look in another direction for the winner.
1. Final Gambit (30-1): Final Gambit has run four races, and in all four he has passed horses from start to finish. I expect the pace to be hot and the horses who have proven they can pass horses through traffic to be the ones to beat. This is Brad Cox’s only trainee in the race after having multiple horses on the Derby trail. Final Gambit — a gray — will be a long price but a good chance to make it in the money.
2. Chunk of Gold (30-1): A Fair Grounds-based horse who ran second in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, Chunk of Gold has caught my eye this week. He is another who has shown he can pass horses but possesses a bit more early speed than the top choice, meaning Chunk of Gold could get the jump on the deep closers. Another who will be a very big price, so we are hoping for an in the money finish.
3. Burnham Square (12-1): This one impressed me early in the spring, and that race in Florida may have taken a lot out of him, but he has rebounded nicely lately. He will be coming from behind — do you sense a trend here? — and has Brian Hernandez, Jr., last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, guiding him through traffic
Long Shot — Luxor Café (15-1): I would be remiss if I didn’t mention a Japanese horse, since I’ve picked one the last two years, and Luxor Café certainly has the credentials to win this. His races have been eye-catching, but you never really know who is running behind him. He’s another long shot to keep an eye on and throw into those deep trifecta and superfecta boxes.
(Michael Beychok is a senior partner of Ourso Beychok Inc., an award-winning national political consulting firm based in Louisiana, and the 2012 National Handicapping Championship and 2012 Eclipse Award winner for best handicapper.)
Kevin Kilroy’s analysis and selections
1. Burnham Square (12-1): He’s been kicking down his stall in Ian Wilkes’ barn, galloping with his neck bowed, full of energy in every way, I have no doubt that Burnham Square came out of his huge effort in the Blue Grass Stakes ready to run the best race of his career. My speed figures have his best effort right there with Journalism. Louisiana’s own Brian Hernandez Jr. will be in the irons, looking for back-to-back Derby wins. I will take a swing with a win bet on Burnham Square at 8-1 or higher.
2. Luxor Café (15-1): Though he did not win, the best effort in last year’s Derby undoubtedly came from Forever Young. He was a well-hyped horse that was on everyone’s radars, but Luxor Cafe, this year’s Japanese invader with top credentials, is flying under the radar. He’s a touch slower on the speed figures, but no other horse in the field has been as impressive visually in his races. He can put himself in a mid-pack position and then accelerate with an electric turn of foot. I will be betting him to win at 12-1 or higher.
3. Journalism (3-1): I live to fade a favorite, and I do believe there is a slight case to be made against Journalism. He’s been facing small fields made up of horses who could not get the distance, and in the Santa Anita Derby he rolled late down the center of the track on a day when inside speed was dying on the vine. Still, he’s not only the proven fastest horse in the field, he is also impressive physically and energetically. He is showing all the signs that he is in top form, and I do believe he will get a piece of the Derby pie.
Longshots – Flying Mohawk (30-1) and Final Gambit (15-1): We saw Flying Mohawk win over the Stall-Wilson turf course at Fair Grounds this winter before he shipped to Turfway and ran second in the Jeff Ruby Stakes over the synthetic course. Racing on dirt is the question mark, but he has never been outworked on a dirt track, including an impressive move going better than Honor Marie this past week. Trainer Whit Beckman has been pushing him in the mornings, and he looks ready to step up. Final Gambit will be finding his best stride when other runners are waving the white flag. Although not a legitimate win contender, I think his jockey Luan Machado will have him rolling late.
(Kevin Kilroy is a racing analyst at the Fair Grounds Race Course and Churchill Downs. He is a two-time National Horseplayers Championship qualifier, finishing 21st in 2021.)
Patrick McGoey’s analysis and selections
1. Journalism (3-1): I think he will be very difficult to beat. He has the highest speed rating of any horse in the field, is bread to go a mile and a quarter, and he encountered a lot of trouble in his last race and still won. His works leading up to the Derby look great, and I think he will only improve at this distance. If he breaks clean, he should get first jump on the closers and win.
2. Baeza (12-1): Baeza is not yet in the field, but if one horse scratches, he will draw into the race. He was slow to develop, but he ran a very big second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. He is bred to win a classic, as his dam, Puca, foaled Derby winner Mage and Belmont winner Dornoch. He has looked great on the track at Churchill, and should improve off of his last race. Flavian Pratt is scheduled to ride him, and that is a big jockey change. If he draws into the field, he is a contender.
3. Burnham Square (12-1): This horse is improving at the right time. He won the Blue Grass Stakes with a powerful closing kick. He has the reigning derby winning jockey Brian Hernandez riding him, and his recent works have been on the rail. That leads me to believe that Brian Hernandez will try to get another rail skimming trip like he did last year on Mystik Dan.
Long Shot — Publisher 30-1): He has never won a race, but he is trained by Steve Assmussen, the most winning trainer ever, is sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and ridden by Irad Ortiz, one of the best jockeys in America. With connections like these, he has a shot (albeit a long one) of getting his first win in the Derby.
(Patrick McGoey is a commercial litigator from New Orleans and won the 2011 & 2012 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge and 2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge.)
Chad Schexnayder’s analysis and selections
Betting the Kentucky Derby is unlike any other race in North America. The best 3-year-olds of their crop gather in a 20-horse starting gate to run 1¼ miles, the farthest they have tried to this point in their short career. The distance of the race is what separates the contenders from the pretenders. But distance is only one of a dozen variables handicappers that have to sift through to try and make money. Pace, prep races, post positions, trainers, jockeys, and speed figures are some of the variables to consider, but sometimes it’s just all in a name.
Double-digit odds horses have won the race the past four years, including Mystik Dan last year. My advice: Don’t let anyone talk you off of a horse you like in the Derby. Stick to your guns, because it’s really the one race all year that anything can happen.
1. Sovereignty (5-1): Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott won the 2019 Kentucky Derby when longshot Country House was elevated to the winner’s circle following a disqualification of Maximum Security. It makes Mott a Kentucky Derby winning trainer in the record books. But he would like to win one with a horse hitting the wire first. He has gone on record to say this son of Into Mischief is his best chance. Sovereignty had enough points to make the Derby before his fast closing second in his last start in the Florida Derby. That should serve as the perfect prep race for what the objective is on Saturday. The last four Derbies have been won by mid-range or deep closers, which is Sovereignty’s running style. He’s proven over the Churchill Downs surface. A clean trip is all that stands between him and a fresh set of roses.
2. Journalism (3-1): The son of Curlin will be a prohibitive and deserving favorite come post time, and it’s hard to find any errors in his resume. His trainer Mike McCarthy is bursting with confidence. The bullseye will be on Journalism from all others in the field but his ability to handle adversity and accelerate when needed could be the determining factor in the final furlong. He should put away the speed horses by the time the field enters the stretch, but can he hold off a few of the other talented closers. I’m betting he holds off all but one of them.
3. Rodriguez (12-1): One of two horses from the barn of six-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert. Rodriguez fits the speed profile of a typical Baffert horse for this race. While he does not have a penchant for passing horses, Rodriguez has proven to be a tough customer to pass himself when allowed to extend his stride on the front end. There are other pacesetters lined up around him on the inside. but I’ll take my chances that jockey Mike Smith will ration out his speed and lead the field a long way if he breaks well from the gate.
Longshot – Publisher (30-1): The Steve Asmussen trainee enters the race as a maiden, having never won in his seven-race career. He’s here because of his runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby, and he has a puncher’s chance. He will be ridden for the first time by five-time Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz, who has an 0-for-8 record in the Derby. Ortiz and Asmussen have won nearly every high profile North American stakes race over the past decade, but the Derby has eluded them both. It would make for quite a story if this son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah brings home the trophy for two of the sport’s most successful connections.
(Chad Schexnayder is the former publicity director at the Fair Grounds, the host of the Fair Grounds Racing podcast and a regular National Handicapping Tour participant.)
Jeff Duncan’s analysis and selections
As a dyed-in-the-wool, ink-stained wretch, it’s hard for me to pick against Journalism and Publisher, but I’m a contrarian at heart. Here’s how I see the race:
1. Sovereignty (5-1): Mott has this trainee ready to run the best race of his career. He’s more proven than the other top pick, Journalism.
2. Final Gambit (15-1): My long shot special. This big gray colt is peaking at the right time. He’ll be flying down the lane late.
3. Journalism (3-1): It pains me to go against a horse with this name. He might prove me wrong, but I have reservations about the limited competition he has faced in California.
Longshot — Flying Mohawk (30-1): Another horse that is ascending at the right time. Trainer Whit Beckman is one of the most underrated trainers in the sport.
