How preference deals could change who wins in some seats

Two of Australia’s most striking populist figures are again at odds; this time, over preference deals.

Pauline Hanson’s minor party One Nation has dramatically reprinted its how-to-vote cards in at least 10 marginal seats, as pre-polling began, now listing the Coalition second on its preference list.

Ms Hanson told the ABC the last-minute change was a response to Clive Palmer’s “destructive” decision to preference the teals and Labor before the Coalition in some seats where his Trumpet of Patriots candidates are running.

One Nation’s move could benefit Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party, even though the how-to-vote preferences are just a suggestion to voters. 

Ms Hanson said her party had originally put “minor parties [before] the major political parties” on the how-to-vote cards but that she was “upset” with Mr Palmer’s actions.

“He’s just throwing his weight in this election because he can. He has the money, but he’s not there for the right reasons,” she said.

Ms Hanson also accused Mr Palmer of being “hurt” after his failed bid to take over One Nation last year.

Do how-to-vote cards matter?

Preference deals are the agreements between political parties on where to number each other on how-to-vote cards.

Voters aren’t required to follow the order, but many Australians do.

ABC election analyst Antony Green estimates about 40 per cent of voters from the major parties follow the how-to-vote cards — but it’s even less for minor parties.

“For minor parties, the rate of flow is much lower because most people never even see a minor party how-to-vote card.”

Mr Green says it’s more about the general culture of a minor party’s base, rather than what’s printed on the how-to-vote cards. 

For instance, 70 per cent of teal preferences typically flow to Labor, even without candidates recommending voters do so.

The seats affected by One Nation’s preference changes include the Labor-held seats of Hunter, Paterson, Shortland, Whitlam, the NSW seat of Calare (currently held by ex-National Party independent Andrew Gee), the Queensland Labor seat of Blair, the Victorian seats of Monash and Bruce and the Tasmanian seat of Lyons.

In the marginal seats where One Nation is fielding candidates, people who vote for One Nation first, and then the Liberals second, would see their vote eventually flow to the Liberal candidate, if the One Nation candidate is ‘excluded’ for receiving fewer votes.

For the Queensland seat of Blair, where sitting Labor MP Shayne Neumann is on a margin of five per cent, well-directed One Nation preferences could see the seat change hands.

In Paterson, in New South Wales’ Hunter region, Labor’s Meryl Swanson holds on a 2.6 per cent margin.

In 2022, six out of 10 One Nation first-preference votes ended up with the Liberal candidate, so with specific recommendation from One Nation’s preferences, that proportion could be higher.

Labor chooses Greens, but there’s a notable exception

The issue of preference deals have also strained the relationship between Labor and the Greens, which traditionally list each other second.

The Greens announced they’d preference Labor over the Coalition in every seat — part of their “Keep Dutton out” strategy — while Labor is returning the favour, mostly preferencing the Greens or Legalise Cannabis second.

But the notable exception is Macnamara in Melbourne, a seat held on a 12.2 per cent margin by Labor MP Josh Burns, where Labor is running an open ticket that means they haven’t allocated preferences and are telling voters to put ‘1’ for Mr Burns and pick the others as they see fit.

The seat has a high Jewish population, the second highest in the country, and Mr Green says Labor didn’t want to upset voters who’d be unhappy about Labor directing preferences to the Greens, a party that’s been vocal in their support for Palestine.

The Greens, who are mounting fierce competition in Macnamara, are accusing Labor of making a “dirty” deal with the Liberals.

At the last election, Labor had a primary vote of 31.8 per cent, with the Greens second on 29.6 per cent, just ahead of the Liberals on 29 per cent.

Mr Green said the seat will depend on what’s called “the order of exclusion” — that is, if Labor happened to come in third on primary votes, it would impact if the seat falls to the Greens or the Liberals.

“In the past, you would have expected Labor preferences to flow 85 per cent to the Greens, as they do in most other seats where Labor candidates are excluded,” he said. 

“With an open ticket and with a significant Jewish community, you would expect that flow to be weaker, as voters have to make up their own mind.”

But Mr Green still expects the majority of Labor voters to preference the Greens.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s preferencing of the Greens second in his home electorate of Grayndler in Sydney also drew attention. 

The Australian newspaper said he’d preferenced an “Israel-hating radical”, but the Labor leader went on the offensive.

“Why is The Australian determined to give the Greens such profile? It’s rather strange,” Mr Albanese said. 

In a later press conference on Wednesday, he said “last time around, I won on primary votes.”

“My preferences don’t get counted. That’s what happens in Grayndler. I’m not about promoting the Greens candidates, whatever their name is.”

Do One Nation preferences matter? 

Queensland senator Pauline Hanson founded her party in 1997, after former prime minister John Howard disendorsed her as a Liberal candidate back in 1996, setting up a bitter relationship between One Nation and the Liberal Party.

While One Nation used to be a considerable threat to the Liberals, particularly in Queensland, it is no longer considered as much of a danger.

Since 2016, the minor party has formed somewhat of a truce with the Coalition, which realised their preferential vote could be powerful. 

To this end, One Nation’s dramatic re-printing of their how-to-vote cards is a publicity stunt of sorts, Antony Green said.

“I presume the Liberals and One Nation have been talking to each other, and Clive Palmer’s decision on preferences has given an excuse to change what they have originally published.” he said.

Ms Hanson insists her decision wasn’t influenced by the Coalition asking or encouraging her to make the switch.

“A lot of the Coalition members of parliament have actually made their own decisions, and they’ve put One Nation number two on their preference cards,” she said. 

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