The Seattle Mariners maintain within the second American League wild card spot and sit simply two video games out of first place within the AL West. Catcher Cal Raleigh is a celebrity. They made two big-ticket acquisitions in entrance of the commerce deadline in Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez. And but one among their most fascinating options is the place still-young star Julio Rodriguez has settled into this roster.
Signed as a world free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, Rodríguez has already gone from mega-prospect to rising celebrity to a disappointment to at this time, the place he’s at finest under-appreciated and possibly even underrated.
Rodríguez proper now could be solely 24 years previous. That is 4 years youthful than Raleigh. That is the identical age as Seattle’s rookie third baseman Ben Williamson. It’s extremely younger by Main League Baseball requirements.
And Rodríguez is actually a flawed participant, particularly for a star. He does not hit for a excessive common and he strikes out loads alongside a low stroll charge, which is at all times an honest illustration that his grasp of the strike zone and swing choices aren’t nice. That is about it, although. He is good at every thing else.
Earlier this week, he grew to become the primary participant in MLB historical past to succeed in 20 residence runs and 20 steals in every of his first 4 seasons. He is at 101 residence runs and 107 steals in his profession, already, at age 24. We’ll get to what the ballpark does to his hitting in a second, however remember the fact that he is elevated his stolen base share in every of his 4 seasons and this 12 months has solely been caught 4 occasions in 25 makes an attempt.
He is an distinctive defender in middle subject, each by way of vary and together with his arm. Baseball Savant has him within the 97th percentile in fielding vary and 96th in arm power. His pitching employees nearly by no means has to fret about him chasing down a fly ball in middle subject (he leads AL middle fielders in putouts and is second within the majors to Pete Crow-Armstrong).
When it comes to offense, enjoying half his video games in Seattle’s T-Cell Park has an have an effect on. The league-wide slash line this season is .246/.316/.403. In T-Cell Park, it’s .225/.296/.374. Rodríguez has hit .216/.278/.336 at residence and .292/.341/.542 on the street.
When there’s an excessive ballpark at play, metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ will be useful, whereas WAR makes an attempt to inform the complete story, accounting for the worth offered on the basepaths and on protection, each clearly large elements of Julio’s recreation.
Rodríguez presently sits with a 116 OPS+, or 16% higher than league common at getting on base and hitting for energy. Given his lack of walks, that is not too dangerous in any respect. In wRC+, he is at 113. We’re not speaking a couple of below-average hitter and even a mean hitter. We’re speaking about somebody firmly above common.
Now add within the protection and baserunning and we’re taking a look at a 4.8 WAR with nearly 30% of the season nonetheless to go.
Wish to guess what number of place gamers in all of baseball have a better WAR than Rodríguez this season?
For those who did say a quantity, my response is nearly actually “decrease.”
Here is the position-player WAR leaderboard getting into Thursday’s slate of video games:
If we included pitchers, 4 extra entrants slot in above Rodríguez (Cristopher Sánchez, Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler).
By this lens, not solely is Rodríguez under-appreciated, he is, sure, vastly underrated.
Why is that?
Properly, it is a fairly simple reply. He was so good, so quick, signed a monster contract extension after which didn’t stay as much as the expectations that include these kind of paychecks.
Rodríguez debuted on April 8, 2022, for the Mariners at age 21. He received Rookie of the 12 months and posted 6.2 WAR that season, placing up ok numbers to complete seventh in MVP voting. The Mariners even superior to the ALDS for the primary time since 2001. In 2023, a 22-year-old Rodríguez hit .275/.333/.485 (130 OPS+) with 37 doubles, 32 homers, 103 RBI, 102 runs, 37 steals and completed fourth in AL MVP voting.
However the quantity within the center is the issue: that August 2022 contract extension that assured $210 million over 12 years and will swell a lot bigger with escalators. It is inventive and comparatively sophisticated, nevertheless it’s sufficient to be often called a “megadeal” and draw widespread criticism if he isn’t enjoying like a celebrity.
Earlier than the 2024 season formally opened, Rodríguez was among the many favorites to win AL MVP. He did not get a single vote. He didn’t make the All-Star staff. He completed with 4.3 WAR whereas solely slugging .409. He was a 20-20 man, as beforehand established, however he simply scraped in with 20 residence runs and 24 steals. For loads of major-league gamers, this might’ve marked a profession 12 months, however with this being Julio, it left a bitter style. He was imagined to be higher than this.
That dangerous style hasn’t been washed out out of the mouths for a lot of this season. Some nonetheless take into account him a disappointment. And, certain, possibly he is not the prince that was promised (but?), however let us take a look at who Julio Rodríguez in 2025 truly is:
- An incredible defensive middle fielder who is among the higher base-stealers in baseball
- An above-average hitter
- A fantastic hitter on the street who will get his offensive stats suppressed at residence by essentially the most excessive pitcher’s park in baseball
- And, by way of total, all-around worth, top-of-the-line gamers in baseball in 2025
And once more, he is solely 24 years previous. There’s loads of time for him to develop on the plate concerning his strike-zone self-discipline.
In simply 4 seasons, Rodríguez has gone on a curler coaster, and proper now, he is landed at underrated.
