Eric Karabell
Everybody is aware of what proficient San Francisco 49ers working again Christian McCaffrey can obtain statistically when he’s absolutely wholesome. McCaffrey dominated fantasy soccer in the course of the 2019 season, and he did it once more in 2023 in his first full marketing campaign with the 49ers, topping 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scoring 21 touchdowns, transferring fantasy managers to disregard the all-or-nothing nature of counting on him. Few bothered to even debate different choices with the highest choose in 2024 drafts. It was apparent.
It’s hardly so apparent what to do with McCaffrey now. Overeager fantasy managers can persuade themselves of just about something, and lots of view McCaffrey as one of many prime PPR picks once more, leading to a first-round ADP. Why cannot he soar previous 300 PPR factors once more? Nicely, with good luck within the well being division, maybe McCaffrey will, however after a nightmare season during which fantasy’s prime choose (and maybe the 49ers) misled everybody about his mysterious decrease leg illness after which we watched him debut in Week 10 and sputter via 4 disappointing on-field weeks, he’s removed from reliable.
Welcome to a different season of the customarily misunderstood Do Not Draft record, the place the intent is to debate the gamers whose inherent draft day worth may not match up with how a few of us view the gamers statistically. That is actually all that is. Is there a proper draft spot or wage cap determine during which to safe McCaffrey and all his wild upside to your groups? In fact there’s, however for me it certain isn’t within the prime 10 of drafts when there are such a lot of secure, dependable huge receivers and even just a few working backs I favor. Threat versus reward is an actual factor in fantasy soccer, however Spherical 1 certain is a harmful place to behave on it.
This wasn’t the primary time McCaffrey, now 29 years previous, demoralized so many fantasy managers, and even perhaps his personal franchise. The star of 2019 was the bust of the 2020 season. He performed in solely 10 video games over two seasons, earlier than the Carolina Panthers traded him to the 49ers halfway via 2022. McCaffrey regarded rejuvenated and reliable. He didn’t look rejuvenated or reliable in 2024. Guessing how he’ll carry out — and the way usually — is a giant a part of the issue. We do not have to guess with most different gamers within the first two rounds. Why take that likelihood right here?
Odds are I’ll fade every of the top-scoring PPR working backs from the previous two seasons, although their conditions are completely different. Philadelphia Eagles star Saquon Barkley is certain to take a statistical step again general, although he ought to stay productive. Simply not as productive as final season as a result of, c’mon, he cannot do all that once more. Be practical, individuals. There is no such thing as a means Barkley is dealing with 378 touches once more (a staggering 482 when together with the postseason) this season, or maybe ever. It is also value noting he has missed at the very least three video games in 4 of his previous six seasons, so anticipating missed time needs to be a part of the calculus for fantasy managers. The Eagles are analytically inclined. They understand how accidents can derail a season, and actually, this franchise is taking part in for January, anyway.
I can’t choose Barkley early within the first spherical as a result of I’m loading up on the secure huge receivers there. Nonetheless, as with McCaffrey, we’ve seen what is feasible, and it’s superior. There’s ample historic proof right here that hefty workload leads to harm and/or main decline in efficiency the subsequent season, and each McCaffrey and Barkley have a historical past of lacking video games. The truth is, it feels related to level out these fellows have mixed for under six profession top-5 finishes in PPR fantasy scoring. Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry has executed this 5 of the previous six seasons, although he’s going later in drafts.
Again to Barkley: Since 2000, there have been 12 cases of a working again logging 400 carries in a season (together with playoffs), and none of them completed the subsequent season as a top-10 RB. Not one was shut. Eight gamers rushed for two,000 yards in a season earlier than Barkley. None of them even reached 1,500 yards the subsequent season. The Tremendous Bowl champions have choices, together with a QB who scores practically all of the goal-line touchdowns. Barkley is safer than McCaffrey, extra possible to supply top-5 RB numbers with one thing like 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns over 14 video games. McCaffrey is the higher threat. How a lot threat are you cool with?
Listed here are different gamers I maintain ignoring in myriad — and I imply myriad — mock drafts and actual leagues this summer season. The Do Not Draft record is about fading gamers at their present recognition, or ADP. Except some unfavorable well being information is launched, McCaffrey is not falling in drafts anytime quickly. That is likely to be the case with many of the gamers on this record. Examine ADP, not solely at ESPN however somewhere else, and make your personal selections on whom to roster and whom to let another person fear about.
Quarterbacks
In what has develop into an annual custom, I am going to begin by highlighting the primary quarterbacks off the draft board, as a result of below the present guidelines (beginning just one QB) they aren’t sturdy values within the first few rounds. This hardly means Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will battle this season. They need to be nice. You simply may want the working again or huge receiver you could possibly select as an alternative within the first few rounds extra. There aren’t sufficient of the everyday “flex” choices to go round. Provide versus demand issues, so move up Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow early in drafts, too. Give me a quarterback (or two) after Spherical 10.
Even after Spherical 10 or so, there are some quarterbacks who will not be value it. Begin with the beleaguered Anthony Richardson Sr. Should you assume that is the magic 12 months when he lastly stays wholesome and performs at a constantly excessive degree, go for it. I don’t consider he’ll. Daniel Jones most likely performs greater than Richardson. Should you consider the Inexperienced Bay Packers need Jordan Love and his propensity for making errors throwing the soccer 500-plus occasions once more, as he did in 2023, go for it. I don’t consider. And congrats to new Seattle Seahawks starter Sam Darnold for turning his gorgeous 2024 marketing campaign with the Vikings into this deal, however I do not see a repeat. Ignore the eerily linked Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, too. They are not growing older like Tom Brady did. Then once more, who does?
Working backs
Here’s a query for you: One present New York Jets participant boasts a 1,000-yard speeding season. Who’s it? Nope, it’s not Breece Corridor. It’s new QB Justin Fields, for the 2022 Chicago Bears! Should you ask which one in all them is extra prone to surpass this notable, however eminently reachable, mark for a working again in 2025, I’ve doubts for each, however solely one in all them goes within the fourth spherical. That is an issue for Corridor, who is 2 years faraway from his ACL surgical procedure however is coming off an inefficient 2024 season and prone to see much less quantity transferring ahead, notably within the passing sport. Corridor has worth, however he was outscored on a per-game PPR foundation by a number of choices who go a spherical or extra later in ADP (Chuba Hubbard, James Conner, David Montgomery), and I do not see that altering.
Aside from Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty, who appears to be a lock for quantity and excessive efficiency, I’ve been fading different first-year working backs at their present ADPs. Everybody loves the rookies as a result of they have not failed but, however we should query secure pathways to taking part in time for Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Quinshon Judkins, Kaleb Johnson and TreVeyon Henderson. It is all guesswork, and clearly it is determined by ADP. Hampton and Harvey appear awfully in style in drafts. Veteran coaches prefer to lean on, effectively, veterans. Quantity would not seem like a difficulty with Hubbard, Conner, Montgomery, D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard and different veterans. Name ’em boring, unexciting picks, however normally, you realize what you’re getting.
I favored Javonte Williams when he got here out of North Carolina and dealt with 246 touches as a Denver Broncos rookie. Then got here the knee harm. Williams may not belong on this record as a result of he goes late sufficient in drafts that one may as effectively take an opportunity, however there may not be a lot fantasy upside with any Dallas RB. Frankly, lets say that about two different NFC East groups as effectively, because the New York Giants and Washington Commanders may have timeshares, limiting the upside and consistency for all of Brian Robinson Jr., pass-catching Austin Ekeler, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and rookie Cam Skattebo. I am not too within the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ working backs, both.
Huge receivers
I believe everyone seems to be overrating the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs‘ receiving corps of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and, to a lesser diploma, Hollywood Brown. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes did not fall wanting 300 fantasy factors the previous two seasons as a result of his younger huge receivers underachieved or weren’t obtainable. It wasn’t about growing older TE Travis Kelce (who oddly has develop into a draft-day cut price this season), both. Yeah, the Chiefs acquired older. They completed fifteenth in factors scored the previous two seasons for a lot of causes. Mahomes isn’t immediately going again to five,000 passing yards. Rice has off-field points, and he may incur a multiple-game suspension this season. Worthy had an uneven rookie season. Brown hasn’t executed a lot since 2021. The Chiefs will run the soccer; they are going to defend effectively; and, for the third consecutive season, no person will attain 1,000 speeding or receiving yards.
Aaron Rodgers wasn’t notably good for the Jets final season, however nonetheless, lead huge receiver Garrett Wilson caught 101 passes for 1,104 yards, and in-season addition Davante Adams averaged practically 80 receiving yards per sport there. Now Rodgers hooks up with former Seattle Seahawks star DK Metcalf and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Metcalf seems to be like he needs to be a WR1, however the numbers have not been there and evaluating him to Wilson or Adams looks like a attain. Metcalf averaged six TDs per season in three years with competent QB Geno Smith. Is Rodgers actually an improve over Smith? Metcalf goes in drafts as a WR2, however this does not appear to be a greater scenario for him in Pittsburgh.
Deebo Samuel Sr. and Cooper Kupp are going late sufficient in drafts that the funding price is not a giant deal, however these fellows regarded executed final season with the 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, respectively. Now the Commanders and Seahawks take their pictures. Samuel, his physique all the time coping with one thing, cannot see main quantity in Washington, and do not rely on wherever close to the everyday speeding makes an attempt we noticed up to now. Kupp missed 18 video games over the previous three seasons. Not all veterans are able to dependable manufacturing. The top of the road is nearing for Samuel and Kupp.
In the case of WRs in drafts this season, it is likely to be finest to keep away from apparent harm dangers like Samuel and Kupp, and different gamers individuals maintain speaking themselves into. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers appear to know veteran Chris Godwin (ankle) won’t be prepared for Week 1, and even September in any respect, although fantasy managers may not be believing it. Similar with the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk (knee). It all the time appears to take longer for gamers with knee accidents to return. New Orleans Saints star Chris Olave (concussions) is a special matter. I can see investing in a single compromised WR within the center rounds, however not more than that.
I am unsure it issues which quarterback begins for the Colts this season, Richardson or Jones. I might worth Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs extra with even Aaron Rodgers throwing them the ball, so that’s saying quite a bit.
Tight ends
Mark Andrews led the place with 11 landing catches final season, and that’s superior. The issue is, 13 tight ends caught extra passes and 19 noticed extra targets, and people figures are a extra dependable gauge for the longer term. Rising Ravens teammate Isaiah Possible is youthful and never in a contract 12 months, and even when he misses just a few September video games attributable to his foot harm, he can be an element. Landing regression is an actual factor, and the Ravens will possible chop targets for Andrews, too.
You already know these terrific numbers Jonnu Smith achieved final season with the Miami Dolphins? They are not occurring with the Steelers. No shot. Pat Freiermuth stays a Steeler, and an efficient one. Aaron Rodgers is the QB. I am not anticipating rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren to be top-10 choices, however I might take the possibility on them over Smith and the oft-injured Dallas Goedert. One also can stream tight finish as an affordable technique.
As you put together your draft board, take into consideration the precise value for every participant (I like to recommend rating gamers in tiers). If you cannot get a participant at your most well-liked value, do not forget that you do not have to draft him.
