The LA Dodgers (25-12) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (19-18) open a 4-game series Thursday at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Dodgers won 7-6 in 2024
The Dodgers paddled the host Miami Marlins 10-1 on getaway day Wednesday behind RHP Landon Knack, who twirled 5 scoreless innings before turning it over to RP Matt Sauer for the old-fashioned save with 4 innings of 1-run, 1-hit ball. CF Josh Outman hit one out, going 1-for-2 as a late-inning replacement with a 3-run homer in the ninth inning. 1B Freddie Freeman had a monster game, going 3-for-4 with a triple and 4 RBIs.
The Diamondbacks were on the short end of a 7-1 score in a series finale with the visiting New York Mets Wednesday. RF Corbin Carroll accounted for the only RBI, swatting a solo homer, finishing 2-for-2 with a pair of walks. CF Alek Thomas also had a single and a double in 4 at-bats, raising his average to .295 in a losing effort.
Los Angeles has won 9 of the past 11 games, including 4-2 in the past 6 outings, each on the road. The Over and Under have alternated in each of the past 7 games with the Over hitting in the 10-1 victory Wednesday in South Florida.
Arizona is just 2-4 in the past 6 games, with the Under going 7-1 in the previous 8 outings. However, the Diamondbacks have allowed at least 5 runs in 4 of the past 5 outings, while allowing 4 or more runs in 10 of the past 14 contests.
L.A.’s RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto enters the game with a MLB-best 0.90 ERA across his 7 starts this season.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Yamamoto (4-2, 0.90 ERA) makes his eighth start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 40 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 2-1 road victory vs. Atlanta Braves Friday
- 2025 road splits: 3-1, 0.38 ERA (24 IP, 1 ER), 0 HR, 6 BB, 25 K, 0.75 WHIP in 4 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 2-0, 1.46 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 0 HR, 3 BB, 13 K in 2 starts last season
- Career in Arizona: 1 start, win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 8-0 victory May 1, 2024
Pfaadt (5-2, 3.79 ERA) makes his eighth start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9, 7.8 K/9 in 40 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER (7 R), 9 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 7-2 road setback vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- 2025 home splits: 3-1, 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER), 1 HR, 4 BB, 19 K, 1.13 WHIP in 4 starts
- 2024 vs. Dodgers: 2-0, 3.86 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 0 HR, 3 BB, 17 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Dodgers: 2-2, 6.20 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 2 HR, 7 BB, 26 K, 1.62 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 in 4 starts
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Dodgers at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:09 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Dodgers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Diamondbacks 2
The DODGERS (-150) are a solid play as moderate favorites while backing Yamamoto, the MLB leader in ERA. The second-year pitcher has been cooking along, and he is even better on the road. He has allowed just a single earned run in 24 innings across 4 starts away from SoCal all season.
The Diamondbacks (+125) will put up a fight as Pfaadt has been one of the most consistent pitchers for the Snakes. However, facing Yamamoto is a tall order for an Arizona team which has been struggling.
The DODGERS -1.5 (+105) aren’t a bad play at plus-money if you’re a little more on the adventurous side. Forget about the moneyline and look to the run line instead.
Don’t get too carried away, though. While Yamamoto is expected to pitch well, he is due for a stinker. Plus, Pfaadt has put up solid numbers at home, and he solved LA for wins in each of his 2024 starts, so tread lightly.
UNDER 9 (-105) might be the best play on the board here. Again, Yamamoto allows nothing, and Pfaadt has been tremendous at home.
The Under is 5-0 in Yamamoto’s 5 starts, while going 6-1 in his 7 outings. The total has gone low in all 4 road starts for the Dodgers righty, too.
For Pfaadt, the Under is 3-1-1 in the past 5 outings, while going 2-1-1 in his 4 assignments at home.
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