After three years in exile from Churchill Downs, Bob Baffert is back. The famed trainer was banned from the Louisville track in 2021 after his Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, failed a post-race blood test. Now, the man who is tied for the most Kentucky Derby wins (six) is back, though one of his two entries was scratched Thursday. However, his remaining entrant still has a shot to win.
Handicapping the Derby is unlike handicapping pretty much any other race. None of the horses has run the 10-furlong distance. None of them has run in a 20-horse field. None of them has experienced the frenzy that is the Derby crowd. Pace scenarios can dissolve as soon as the gates open, traffic is virtually a given and, sometimes, you need more luck than skill to earn the blanket of roses.
So here, we’ll focus on running styles and performances in top-level races, in the hope of getting horses home at good prices.
In post-position order, here’s your look at the field for the 151st Kentucky Derby. Odds referenced are morning line odds from when the field was set April 26. For the most recent odds on the field, visit our updating odds page.
Weather Update (Friday, 5:45 p.m. ET)
A few days ago, the weather for Saturday in Louisville looked perfect, sunny, temperatures in the 60s, and no rain in sight. So much for that.
It briefly poured at Churchill Downs Friday, and the rain is supposed to return overnight before a dry spell Saturday morning. Steady rain is then expected throughout the afternoon, clearing pretty much just in time for the Kentucky Derby.
But by then, the damage will have been done. While the Churchill crew is going to take measures to prevent the track from absorbing too much water (a practice called “sealing”), that much rain is absolutely going to affect the racing surface, which will also potentially affect how the horses run.
While trainers are generally unlikely to scratch horses because of a wet track, especially in big races like this, the race may well play out quite differently from the scenario on a dry track. Some horses have never run in the mud. Some are indifferent to off tracks. Some love them. Some hate them.
Here’s what you need to know if the track gets messy Saturday:
- Longshot Neoequos has romped the only two times he’s run on a sloppy track. Both were at a much shorter distance than the Derby’s 10 furlongs, but that’s still a factor worth considering.
- American Promise has a mixed record in the wet; running long, he won by 1 1/2 lengths in December.
- Admire Daytona finished fourth in his lone start on a muddy track; rain is just another reason to bet against this guy.
- Luxor Cafe has a close second-place finish in the mud. I’m still not using him, but if you like him, this should make you like him more.
- Publisher seems to run basically the same race regardless of the surface condition; a wet track shouldn’t affect your opinion of him.
- Coal Battle is two-for-two on off tracks.
- Favored Journalism has never run on anything except a fast track, so how he’ll perform is anybody’s guess. He’s a really good horse and a deserving favorite, but they say you should never bet a horse as the favorite doing something he’s never done before.
Now, on to the full field analysis.
1. Citizen Bull
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Morning line odds: 20-1
One of the standouts in this year’s crop of 3-year-olds, Citizen Bull had won four of five races, all comfortably, all in stakes races, before heading into the Santa Anita Derby earlier this month. But a puzzling fourth-place finish at Santa Anita certainly raises questions, as the inveterate frontrunner was in his customary place in the lead when he yielded down the stretch. Granted, the top two finishers in that race are very good horses — and both are entered here, with winner Journalism the favorite and Baeza joining the field as an alternate — but proceed with caution. If Citizen Bull doesn’t get to the lead right away, and that’s a big ask from post 1, he has no shot.
2. Neoequos
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, Stefania Farms, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman, and Timothy Pinch
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Luis Saez
Morning line odds: 30-1
He’s winless in graded stakes, and the speed figure in his last race, a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, is the lowest of any other entrant’s most recent performance. He’s another that needs the lead to be competitive, but even if he gets there, he doesn’t have enough speed to compete with the other horses. Flavien Prat was originally supposed to ride Neoequos, but switched to Baeza once he drew into the race. Luis Saez will now take the reins.
3. Final Gambit
Owner: Juddmonte
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
Morning line odds: 30-1
Juddmonte’s racing and breeding operations are among the best on the planet, and they don’t mess around. Still, one wonders just what this horse is doing in this race. He’s never raced on dirt, his four races having been contested on turf and synthetic surfaces, and his lone start outside of the maiden ranks came in March. That was a Grade 3, sure, and he did win by 3 1/2 lengths, but I’m not seeing it.
4. Rodriguez
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Scratched Thursday by Baffert, Rodriguez won’t run in the Derby. With this decision, Baeza enters the field and the other qualifiers will move one slot closer to the rail. More on Baeza below.
5. American Promise
Owner: BC Stables
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Morning line odds: 30-1
As his win in the Preakness with Seize the Grey last year demonstrated, never discount 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas. A lot will have to go right for this horse and wrong with a lot of other runners, so I wouldn’t bet the farm on him, but the speed figure in his last start impressed. That said, he’s never even hit the board in a graded stakes race, he’s been beaten several times by other runners here and he’s another that’s going to want to get to the front. You want to root for a story and for Lukas to get his fifth Derby win? Wager lightly.
6. Admire Daytona
Owner: Junko Kondo
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Morning line odds: 30-1
Over the last decade, U.S. racing entities have aggressively wooed international runners, many of which, like this one, boast American bloodlines. Admire Daytona earned his way into the race by winning the UAE Derby in Dubai, eking out a nose win in a race that carries Kentucky Derby qualifying points. There’s no doubt that Japanese-trained horses are on the rise, but the first Japanese Kentucky Derby winner will have to wait. The international travel is a drawback, as is a race record for Admire Daytona that, while respectable, doesn’t inspire confidence.
7. Luxor Cafe
Owner: Koichi Nishikawa
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: João Moreira
Morning line odds: 15-1
This Japanese runner earned points in the Japan series of qualifying races, winning the Fukuryu and Hyacinth Stakes. He comes to the Derby with four straight wins, and he’s sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. His record is impressive, and while I wouldn’t rule him out, this is a big ask.
8. Journalism
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Morning line odds: 3-1
After finishing third in his first start last October, this $825,000 yearling purchase has reeled off four straight wins, three of them in graded stakes races. His speed figures tower over those of most of his rivals here, and he’s got a stalking running style that means that he can sit in the second tier of runners before finding space to run late. If Journalism makes the post-race headlines, it will be the first Derby win for both trainer and jockey.
9. Burnham Square
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Morning line odds: 12-1
Wilkes is one of those trainers who doesn’t run in big races just for the sake of it. Burnham Square turned in two impressive performances to earn his way here, a 1 3/4-length win in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and a nose victory in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He comes from off the pace, which is an advantageous running style, though he is perhaps not quite fast enough to hit the wire first.
10. Grande
Owner: Repole Stable (Mike Repole)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Grande was the second horse from the field scratched, removed from the field Friday morning due to a foot bruise. There are no other alternates, so no other horse will draw into the field.
11. Flying Mohawk
Owner: Two Eight Racing (Jayson Werth), Berry Family Racing, and Kaleta Racing
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
Morning line odds: 30-1
Here’s another that squeaked his way into the Derby field at the last minute, running second in a qualifying race in March. That was his first test not on turf, but Turfway Park runs on a synthetic surface, meaning that this runner will be making his first start on dirt in a huge field with experienced, talented runners. Pass.
12. East Avenue
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Morning line odds: 20-1
The buzz on this horse has run hot and cold since he debuted with an eight-length win at Ellis Park last August. In his second start, he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, then faltered badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Risen Star Stakes. A narrow loss in the Blue Grass put him squarely back in the Derby picture, but as another need-the-lead type, I think he’s outclassed here.
13. Publisher
Owner: Gus King and Estate of Brereton C. Jones
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Morning line odds: 20-1
Anyone with me on the Journalism/Publisher exacta hunch bet? A hunch might be the only way to convince yourself to bet this horse, which has never — NEVER — won a race. In seven lifetime starts, he’s got two seconds and three thirds, and those finishes earned him enough points to get into the race. It would indeed be breaking news for a maiden to win the Derby.
14. Tiztastic
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Morning line odds: 20-1
After a couple of good races as a 2-year-old, this colt has made it to the winner’s circle only once in five races going back to last October. As the competition has gotten tougher, he’s found it hard to keep up, though his closing style may help him complete some vertical exotics.
15. Render Judgment
Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing, Rocket Ship Racing and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Morning line odds: 30-1
McPeek won both the Oaks and Derby last year, and he’s got runners in both again this year. This colt is unlikely to get him back to the Churchill winner’s circle on Saturday. Winless since breaking his maiden last October, he’s seldom been competitive, and while analyzing jockey changes can be a fool’s errand, the jockey who rode McPeek’s horses to Oaks and Derby victory last year is on another horse in the race this year.
Thursday morning, McPeek told Stephen Andress the colt is suffering from a quarter crack. While this is not a serious injury, keep in mind this is the ailment that plagued 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown ahead of his Triple Crown attempt in the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown ended up being eased in that race. Proceed accordingly.
16. Coal Battle
Owner: Norman Stables
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Morning line odds: 30-1
A pretty consistent runner in listed stakes races, Coal Battle impressed when taking the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs in his first jump into graded stakes company. He followed that up with a distance third-place finish last out, and while his versatile running style could be useful here, so would an additional burst of speed, which he’s thus far not shown in his eight-race career.
17. Sandman
Owner: D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: José Ortiz
Morning line odds: 6-1
This impressively bred colt brought $1.2 million as a 2-year-old a year ago March, and in eight races since then, he’s earned back his purchase price, winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and placing in three other graded stakes. His late-closing style won’t be hampered by this outside post, and while two of his worst races have come over the Churchill Downs track, I expect him to be well in the mix and will try to beat Journalism with him.
18. Sovereignty
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning line odds: 5-1
Bill Mott isn’t the sort of trainer who will enter just to have a horse in the Derby, so even though this horse is fairly lightly raced, especially his campaign this year, he gets a long look from me. In his first start off a five-month layoff, he won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes by a neck, then came back to finish second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He’s a closer in a race loaded with speed, and his connections are impeccable.
19. Chunk of Gold
Owner: Terry L. Stephens
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Morning line odds: 30-1
This long shot is getting a lot of attention from racing insiders. He cost a mere $2,500 as a yearling, and he began his career on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park in December. After two starts (a win and a second), he headed to Louisiana and the Derby trail to run in two qualifying races, finishing second in both of them. He’s another one who likes to run from off the pace, and this is a big ask, but what a story it would be.
20. Owen Almighty
Owner: Flying Dutchmen
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Morning line odds: 30-1
This promising colt looked great until his final prep, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in early April. He’d been first or second in five of six races, but a bad break in the Blue Grass left him with a sixth-place finish, not exactly how you want to head into the Derby. He’s also another speed horse, and this far outside post does him absolutely no favors. I’ll look for him down the road, not in this spot.
21. Baeza
Owner: C R K Stable and Grandview Equine
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 12-1
With Rodriguez scratching Thursday afternoon, Baeza has drawn in. He’ll break from post position No. 20, and given his frontrunning style, he won’t have any easy task getting to the lead from the far outside. He didn’t debut until last December, and it was an inauspicious debut at that, finishing ninth. But that race was on grass, and he was a different animal when he got on dirt, earning a win and two seconds in three starts. That included a runner-up finish by less than a length to Derby favorite Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. If Prat can harness that early speed while the others duel up front, he could easily be in contention at the end, given the impressive speed figure for Baeza’s last-out effort in the Santa Anita Derby. While I’d like to see more experience before he jumps into the madness that is the Derby field, he may well prove a formidable foe.
(Photo of Journalism: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
