Let’s make one factor completely clear: Saquon Barkley didn’t present indicators of getting previous or worn down. Even within the Tremendous Bowl, his numbers weren’t nice as a result of the Chiefs rallied to him successfully, and did not miss many tackles, not due to his personal talent set. He nonetheless was shifty and elusive which, for a again his dimension, is a giant deal.
In addition to, the man simply ran for 2,504 yards together with the playoffs, greater than anybody has rushed for in a season and postseason in NFL historical past.
He had 17 explosive runs of 20-plus yards, greater than anybody in 2024 besides Derrick Henry (19). He scored 13 dashing touchdowns, a career-best. He actually backward-hurdled over a defender final 12 months. His athleticism is not in query.
Match that up with the group he performs on and it is as apparent as respiration: Saquon Barkley goes to get taken with a Spherical 1 decide.
However in the event you’re eager about taking him first total, or as the primary operating again off the board, or as even the second or third operating again off the board, you then could be asking for hassle.
Barkley’s career-best 12 months was additionally the busiest 12 months he is ever had. Final 12 months, over 20 video games, Barkley touched the ball 482 occasions. Worse but, 436 of these touches had been carries. It is the sixth-most rush makes an attempt by a operating again in a single 12 months (regular-season plus postseason) since 1970!
And the monitor file of operating backs coming off a season with that a lot work is not good. These guys are people, not machines, and so they’re vulnerable to getting drained and worn down. Historical past exhibits it.
However it’s not simply that historical past that ought to concern you. It is Barkley’s personal private historical past of carrying down the 12 months after getting ultra-high quantity that ought to make you utterly re-think your expectations for the 28-year-old in 2025.
After 400 carries
Barkley is the twenty fifth operating again to recover from 400 carries in a 12 months. Here is a snapshot of the prior 24 operating backs since 1990 who had 400-plus carries in a 12 months and what occurred to them the 12 months after:
- Of the prior 24 operating backs, solely three outperformed the PPR per-game common of their 400-plus contact 12 months, and 4 extra had been shut sufficient to the PPR per-game common of their 400-plus contact 12 months that nobody would complain.
- Of these seven with close-enough-or-better manufacturing, simply two had been 28 years previous or older, and each averaged fewer than 17 PPR factors per recreation.
- Of the remaining 17 operating backs, a startling sixteen operating backs both acquired damage and missed at the very least seven video games or noticed a PPR per-game decline of at the very least 25% or each. Meaning 70.8% of RBs with at the very least 400 carries pale the next 12 months.
- Of the prior 24 operating backs, seven had been 28 years previous or older of their year-after-400 carries. Not one of the seven noticed an enchancment of their PPR point-per-game common, with solely two seeing a drop fewer than 5.4 factors per recreation.
So if Barkley goes to buck historical past, he’ll have to do what solely 29.2% of operating backs who’ve had 400-plus carries over the past 35 years have achieved. He would additionally grow to be the first-ever operating again coming off a 400-plus carry season at 28 years previous to exceed his prior 12 months’s PPR per-game common since 1990.
However that is NFL historical past. It is a warning signal, particularly because it pertains to accidents and lacking video games, however it actually has nothing to do with Barkley himself.
For this reason his personal historical past when he is had a whole lot of work is what ought to make you nervous.
Barkley’s high-volume previous
As a rookie in 2018, Barkley had 352 touches (261 carries and 91 receptions). He averaged a ridiculous 24.1 PPR factors per recreation, together with the playoffs. The next 12 months he performed 13 of 16 video games, acquired damage within the first half of one other recreation early on within the 12 months, and averaged 20.7 touches and 18.8 PPR factors per recreation for a 22% lower in Fantasy manufacturing.
Historical past repeated in 2022 when Barkley amassed 377 touches in 18 video games (a then-career-high 313 carries and 64 receptions) and averaged 17.9 PPR factors per recreation. The next 12 months, his final in New York, he performed 14 of 17 video games and averaged 20.6 touches and 15.9 PPR factors per recreation for a roughly 12% lower in Fantasy manufacturing.
A ten% drop from Barkley’s 2024 can be 19.5 PPR factors per recreation. We might take that, however it most likely would not be sufficient to justify the 1.01 decide. A 22% drop from Barkley’s 2024 can be 17.3 PPR factors per recreation. Which may get him into the top-five amongst RBs however definitely would not justify the primary or second total decide. And any video games he misses with harm would clearly be a catastrophe.
So not solely should Barkley buck historic developments, however he has to interrupt the norms of his personal private historical past when he is been worn down the season prior.
And but there’s nonetheless extra to sweat.
After 2,000-yard seasons
Barkley and Derrick Henry every had over 2,000 rush yards in 2024, postseason included (Barkley had 2,005 yards within the common season). Earlier than final season there have been 13 cases of a operating again hitting that mark prior to now 35 years, together with Henry in 2020.
Of these 13 operating backs with over 2,000 rush yards within the common season and playoffs, solely one — Terrell Davis in 1997-98 — averaged extra PPR factors per recreation and had extra dashing yards the next season. That is to be anticipated, although, as a result of getting 2,000 yards is actually powerful to do.
Among the many remaining 12, Henry had extra PPR factors per recreation in 2021 than he did in his 2,067 season in 2020, however he solely performed 9 video games that his season. That was Henry’s first actual harm from taking part in professional soccer.
These different 11 operating backs? Two had been moderately near their PPR manufacturing the 12 months prior (Emmitt Smith 1992-93 and Adrian Peterson 2012-13), and 9 had been manner off — at the very least a 28% drop in PPR per-game common the season after 2,000-plus rush yards together with seven of the 9 getting 15.1 or fewer PPR factors per recreation.
And, most notably, solely two operating backs ran for over 1,500 yards the 12 months after 2,000. Davis was clearly one in all them, Smith was the opposite.
Barkley has by no means posted back-to-back seasons with even 1,100 rush yards. He is been over 1,000 rush yards in consecutive campaigns as soon as — his first two years within the league. That is simply one other huge impediment in his path (and Henry’s too).
After ending first … and top-five
It is one other historic knowledge level, however one which additional narrows the upside Barkley has: No operating again has completed the common season atop of the PPR per-game mountain two years in a row since Todd Gurley in 2017-18. And the final one earlier than Gurley was Brian Westbrook in 2007-08. That is once-per-decade sort stuff.
That merely stacks the deck in opposition to Barkley ending because the No. 1 RB in PPR once more. In case you imagine it is unlikely he’ll repeat, then he can’t be your No. 1 operating again.
However could not he end second? Third? Fifth?
His odds of ending inside the prime 5 in PPR factors per recreation are higher, however not nice.
Going again to 2005-06, there have been 30 cases of a operating again ending top-five in PPR factors per recreation. Feels like loads, however it’s not — 5 gamers get the possibility to do it yearly clearly, and so we’re speaking in regards to the previous 20 years, so it is 100 probabilities complete. Meaning 70% of the operating backs who’ve completed top-five failed to take action once more the next 12 months. Placing it one other manner: a median of 1.5 operating backs have repeated as top-five Fantasy choices on a PPR per-game foundation within the final 20 years.
Just one did in 2023-24: Alvin Kamara, who wanted a slew of receptions to assist him get to the highest 5 once more. Kamara was one in all seven operating backs to repeat as a top-five finisher on a PPR per-game foundation at 28 years previous or older.
And for as legendary as Barkley has been for Fantasy, he has by no means completed top-five in PPR factors per recreation in back-to-back years. He is completed back-to-back within the prime 10 a few occasions, however not prime 5.
That is yet one more milestone he must accomplish … at 28 years previous and after a 438-carry, 2,504-rush-yard season.
Resetting expectations
New Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo was impressed with Barkley’s situation throughout OTAs, however he additionally stated he wants to ensure to increase on every thing they did final 12 months in order to not be predictable. Hypothesis suggests extra passing, which ought to embrace Barkley and maybe give a bit of increase to his PPR profile. That is good.
However that is not sufficient to miss every thing else in his previous and the previous of heavy-usage operating backs. Candidly, it looks like the chances are lengthy for Barkley to have one other monster season.
In fact, that does not imply he cannot be good for Fantasy — he might be. However it’s in your finest pursuits to rethink what it’s best to anticipate from him.
- Repeating 2,000 rush yards is extraordinarily unlikely. However it could be cheap if he had 1,300 rush yards. He is achieved that 3 times in his profession together with two of his previous three seasons. Getting over 1,600 complete yards can be nicely inside expectations.
- Repeating as the highest RB in Fantasy is extraordinarily unlikely. Okay effective, we should not anticipate that.
- Repeating as a top-five RB on a per-game foundation is not inconceivable, however nonetheless unlikely. Simply seven occasions prior to now 35 years has a RB repeated as a top-five RB at age 28. A top-10 end? Much more cheap.
- Repeating a robust PPR per-game common can be extraordinarily unlikely, particularly since Barkley noticed his common dip after earlier profitable seasons. However cracking 17.0 PPR factors per recreation, particularly if he will see a small increase in receptions and nonetheless be in line for a bunch of touchdowns, is completely in play. That common would have made him a top-10 RB final season, and 16.1 would have put him within the prime 10 in 2023, 2022, and 2021.
- The danger for harm after 400-plus carries is elevated, particularly since Barkley missed some video games following every of two seasons with 260-plus carries. That is true, not a complete lot we will do about it, however it’s not essentially one thing to be overly frightened of. Even when he had been to overlook three video games he might nonetheless be very useful within the different 14, however that might sting extra in the event you took him first total.
When to draft Barkley?
Look, some folks fall in love. If nothing on this analysis modified your thoughts on Barkley and you have gotta have him in your Fantasy group, you then’ll be prepared to take him towards the tippy prime of your draft, or for greater than a 3rd of your Public sale funds. Hey, it is your group, it’s best to take who you need.
And the truth is that in the event you’re not in love with Barkley, be it due to this analysis or every other motive, you then’re most likely not going to have an opportunity to get him as a result of another person in your league will likely be in love with him and can take him sooner than they need to. Nothing you are able to do about that.
Any operating again with 20 PPR per-game potential needs to be taken over Barkley. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs stand out as runners who might hit that mark. De’Von Achane might too as a result of he catches so many passes. And Christian McCaffrey has it in his profile, although that may crash by the ground if he incurs any ailment between now and Week 1. You would argue Ashton Jeanty and Derrick Henry might get to twenty PPR factors per recreation, however I really feel like they’re in the identical vary as Barkley and I would just fairly take Barkley.
Receivers like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb are additionally 20-point contenders who may very well be considered as safer PPR picks than Barkley.
I’ve settled on Barkley as a top-five operating again in my rankings, however proper at No. 5. It means I am most likely not going to get him in any of my leagues, which I am clearly OK with. I do not wish to spend a prime decide on somebody who has such an uphill battle to be a prime Fantasy operating again when he’d struggled battling up that hill coming off of prior high-usage seasons. The opposite historical past involving previous operating backs is an apparent concern, too.
This does not imply I believe it is a mistake to take Barkley in Spherical 1. I will do it if the chance presents itself, however it will must be nearer to tenth total in PPR (sooner in half- and non-PPR). I simply do not suppose that is going to occur fairly often in my drafts, and I doubt it occurs in yours.
Whether or not you are all the way in which in on Barkley or all the way in which out, at the very least you now know the historic profiles concerned. Barkley broke most of these norms final 12 months, however it’s as much as you if you wish to wager on him doing so once more.
